Return-path: X-Andrew-Authenticated-as: 7997;andrew.cmu.edu;Ted Anderson Received: from corsica.andrew.cmu.edu via trymail for +dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr1/ota/space/space.dl@andrew.cmu.edu (->+dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr1/ota/space/space.dl) (->ota+space.digests) ID ; Sun, 25 Jun 89 03:17:04 -0400 (EDT) Message-ID: Reply-To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU From: space-request+@Andrew.CMU.EDU To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU Date: Sun, 25 Jun 89 03:16:55 -0400 (EDT) Subject: SPACE Digest V9 #510 SPACE Digest Volume 9 : Issue 510 Today's Topics: NASA Prediction Bulletins RE: Nemesis and Pluto's chaotic orbit ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: 25 Jun 89 00:39:47 GMT From: ncis.tis.llnl.gov!blackbird!tkelso@lll-winken.llnl.gov (TS Kelso) Subject: NASA Prediction Bulletins The most current orbital elements from the NASA Prediction Bulletins are carried on the Celestial RCP/M, (513) 427-0674, and are updated several times weekly. Documentation and tracking software are also available on this system. As a service to the satellite user community, the most current of these elements are uploaded weekly to sci.space. This week's elements are provided below. The Celestial RCP/M may be accessed 24 hours/day at 300, 1200, or 2400 baud using 8 data bits, 1 stop bit, no parity. - Current NASA Prediction Bulletins #531 - Alouette 1 1 00424U 89170.38185254 0.00000411 48322-3 0 2126 2 00424 80.4642 283.6922 0024273 123.7629 236.5831 13.67157185333119 SOLRAD R/B 1 00727U 64001 A 89160.08890248 .00000146 00000-0 14227-3 0 2689 2 00727 69.9021 112.7599 0011510 112.9001 247.3319 13.93530820291961 Cos 185 R/B 1 03019U 67104 B 89164.30359152 .00006474 00000-0 43704-3 0 3667 2 03019 64.0609 127.9910 0224269 229.7634 128.3741 14.89200941104501 ATS 3 1 03029U 67111 A 89149.67299267 -.00000074 00000-0 99999-4 0 2320 2 03029 12.7202 24.3096 0015222 196.7828 163.1216 1.00272718 78954 Cosmos 398 1 04966U 71 16 A 89164.12583296 .00017642 00000-0 11444-3 0 7270 2 04966 51.5545 41.2455 2529601 204.7799 140.7250 10.50639702551964 LAGEOS 1 08820U 89171.53933622 0.00000004 0 7751 2 08820 109.8287 231.2250 0044904 315.1453 44.5720 6.38664144 50844 GOES 2 1 10061U 77048 A 89160.78642280 -.00000012 00000-0 00000 0 0 2722 2 10061 7.1573 68.2858 0004828 174.9762 184.8818 1.00279079 5309 GPS-0001 1 10684U 89164.46628671 0.00000011 10000-3 0 1387 2 10684 63.5575 100.9614 0108287 199.1817 160.4045 2.00560603 68450 GPS-0002 1 10893U 89160.43623017 -.00000027 0 9898 2 10893 64.5540 341.8856 0177819 32.2012 328.9083 2.00564224 81192 GOES 3 1 10953U 78062 A 89163.82999455 .00000088 00000-0 99999-4 0 6777 2 10953 6.0412 70.8826 0008338 259.1647 100.5880 1.00263855 899 SeaSat 1 1 10967U 89165.02130226 0.00001235 47955-3 0 1263 2 10967 108.0087 281.0767 0002869 242.6736 117.4157 14.34631789573631 GPS-0003 1 11054U 89164.73853963 -.00000027 0 330 2 11054 64.1430 338.2466 0053632 120.5033 240.1236 2.00561449 78291 GPS-0004 1 11141U 89165.33919356 0.00000011 0 1662 2 11141 63.5432 100.8361 0057852 320.9315 38.6335 2.00572717 77005 NOAA 6 1 11416U 89164.05615841 0.00000993 43355-3 0 8599 2 11416 98.5064 161.2383 0013229 119.8461 240.4074 14.25791562517318 Solar Max 1 11703U 89168.65293917 0.00083802 12738-2 0 9876 2 11703 28.4979 275.9371 0003667 83.8760 276.2277 15.53088570519911 GPS-0006 1 11783U 89161.80590743 -.00000027 0 9124 2 11783 63.8754 337.9867 0143723 62.4276 299.0299 2.00567770 66876 GOES 4 1 11964U 89 97.28408596 -.00000249 10000-3 0 569 2 11964 4.7936 76.3436 0158171 23.8450 337.0124 0.99392857 1324 GOES 5 1 12472U 89165.62230441 -.00000249 0 7360 2 12472 2.1442 85.5357 1339225 255.7898 88.3318 1.00210951 28564 SME 1 12887U 81100 A 89163.08679497 .00021991 00000-0 78451-3 0 2143 2 12887 97.6883 188.9594 0001775 199.3928 160.7244 15.28902000424375 UOSAT 1 1 12888U 89170.05990600 0.00113697 13101-2 0 6059 2 12888 97.5555 223.7870 0003516 160.6678 199.4694 15.61579442429284 Meteor 2-08 1 13113U 89168.14449764 0.00000296 25664-3 0 6472 2 13113 82.5388 58.8009 0017113 61.2725 299.0180 13.84004748365238 Salyut 7 1 13138U 89170.64980197 0.00020040 46821-3 0 6227 2 13138 51.6093 305.4174 0000775 86.9620 273.0565 15.42160880408573 LandSat 4 1 13367U 82 72 A 89164.10121246 .00002157 00000-0 48880-3 0 9866 2 13367 98.2137 227.7793 0001842 187.7937 172.3241 14.57130881367550 Meteor 2-09 1 13718U 89169.73127574 0.00000669 34600-3 0 7881 2 13718 81.2416 280.0325 0056843 355.9589 4.1128 14.13218188335772 IRAS 1 13777U 89165.52134960 0.00000003 14308-4 0 6476 2 13777 99.0437 2.6715 0012528 322.7535 37.2771 13.98598385325821 TDRS 1 1 13969U 83 26 B 89154.60178946 -.00000234 00000-0 99999-5 0 8028 2 13969 3.5055 67.7147 0002838 173.0308 187.3950 1.00270271 89261 GOES 6 1 14050U 83 41 A 89162.88397443 .00000122 00000-0 00000 0 0 9688 2 14050 1.2868 83.0205 0001205 113.3985 245.7938 1.00274617 6555 OSCAR 10 1 14129U 89169.57001521 -.00000045 0 4084 2 14129 26.1825 259.5000 6056079 51.5625 348.7012 2.05881929 17244 GPS-0008 1 14189U 89162.89108152 0.00000010 10000-3 0 6343 2 14189 63.1945 99.5091 0135456 215.5924 143.4837 2.00569040 43337 Meteor 2-10 1 14452U 89169.10308477 0.00001168 49730-3 0 7369 2 14452 81.1636 292.6320 0096238 93.7819 267.4378 14.22212994292671 LandSat 5 1 14780U 89171.20465093 0.00001341 30749-3 0 7986 2 14780 98.1680 233.3945 0001876 210.8645 149.2666 14.57128811282005 UOSAT 2 1 14781U 89164.62556897 0.00002139 41992-3 0 4624 2 14781 98.0020 223.5255 0012844 338.9711 21.0988 14.63612938282022 LDEF 1 14898U 89165.43276166 0.00042661 70740-3 0 8756 2 14898 28.5024 196.1901 0002140 223.3505 136.7037 15.50736356291029 GPS-0009 1 15039U 89170.92733944 0.00000010 0 6732 2 15039 62.9305 98.5278 0015005 267.9471 91.8797 2.00564507 36774 Meteor 2-11 1 15099U 84 72 A 89163.53603096 .00000245 00000-0 21205-3 0 9482 2 15099 82.5313 10.0791 0011772 251.0869 108.9025 13.83668421249478 GPS-0010 1 15271U 89166.34115569 -.00000028 0 6446 2 15271 63.3614 337.5928 0099329 320.9058 38.3791 2.00565854 33795 Cosmos 1602 1 15331U 89169.91632623 0.00002879 41594-3 0 428 2 15331 82.5339 336.8513 0026203 77.9801 282.4427 14.75663972254470 NOAA 9 1 15427U 89164.16675569 0.00000780 44610-3 0 3910 2 15427 99.1418 151.0306 0015023 329.2756 30.7558 14.12040210231889 Meteor 2-12 1 15516U 89169.39942960 0.00000315 27283-3 0 908 2 15516 82.5353 303.7960 0017991 109.9183 250.3922 13.84117699221223 Cosmos 1686 1 16095U 89170.71457288 0.00059291 13584-2 0 2843 2 16095 51.6099 305.1026 0000468 304.3317 55.5216 15.42189538408584 GPS-0011 1 16129U 89162.50732034 0.00000010 0 3251 2 16129 63.7182 99.4527 0116270 150.2138 210.4415 2.00564507 26926 Meteor 3-1 1 16191U 89166.61135969 0.00000043 10000-3 0 8346 2 16191 82.5415 236.8496 0018339 306.6294 53.3168 13.16866434175312 Meteor 2-13 1 16408U 89166.59223854 0.00000272 23370-3 0 5036 2 16408 82.5354 220.8915 0015074 310.8206 49.1649 13.84179879175331 Mir 1 16609U 89170.66369542 0.00024868 36072-3 0 8995 2 16609 51.6217 351.2773 0010918 74.1889 285.8927 15.55619061191551 SPOT 1 1 16613U 89171.82045392 -.00000201 -85512-4 0 5025 2 16613 98.7394 246.3039 0001821 132.1029 228.0280 14.20045018 12646 Meteor 2-14 1 16735U 89166.63717749 0.00000393 34467-3 0 3058 2 16735 82.5385 247.6750 0015551 20.7917 339.3892 13.83925664154249 Cosmos 1766 1 16881U 89171.65101573 0.00002458 35811-3 0 6411 2 16881 82.5236 34.7913 0025022 88.2345 272.1883 14.75306618155801 EGP 1 16908U 89170.77684338 0.00000008 35905-3 0 1371 2 16908 49.9977 290.1255 0010578 359.9189 0.1643 12.44378316129735 FO-12 1 16909U 89163.84993524 -.00000025 10000-3 0 1483 2 16909 50.0151 311.6572 0010796 334.2315 25.7981 12.44399345128869 NOAA 10 1 16969U 89168.08320950 0.00001072 49210-3 0 2362 2 16969 98.6348 198.5775 0012438 250.1174 109.8665 14.23045027143923 Meteor 2-15 1 17290U 89166.42048025 0.00000143 11967-3 0 2621 2 17290 82.4679 155.2027 0011362 267.7726 92.2152 13.83725321123371 MOS-1 1 17527U 87 18 A 89156.19806567 .00000630 00000-0 49446-3 0 1404 2 17527 99.1492 227.7547 0001510 75.7479 284.3839 13.94857891116705 GOES 7 1 17561U 89164.57217153 -.00000042 10000-3 0 2835 2 17561 0.0551 31.9488 0027390 160.8269 167.0421 1.00277938 1727 Kvant 1 17845U 89170.79221325 0.00016201 23773-3 0 7847 2 17845 51.6185 350.6388 0010718 73.7464 286.5476 15.55619121191571 RS-10/11 1 18129U 89169.92688841 -.00000261 -29409-3 0 7894 2 18129 82.9267 236.8644 0012886 52.6911 307.5371 13.71983123 99630 Cosmos 1867 1 18187U 87 60 A 89164.06514047 .00000411 00000-0 19631-3 0 8483 2 18187 65.0136 34.0112 0020265 258.3943 101.4841 14.29365930100538 Cosmos 1870 1 18225U 89171.60285248 0.00177077 15737-4 25060-3 0 891 2 18225 71.8655 45.5723 0011647 238.9665 121.0738 16.05403352111842 Meteor 2-16 1 18312U 89166.60404680 0.00000218 18868-3 0 2833 2 18312 82.5580 220.7894 0011397 195.1582 164.9249 13.83480632 92294 Meteor 2-17 1 18820U 89166.58416087 0.00000295 25543-3 0 1234 2 18820 82.5430 281.8270 0015411 273.8337 86.1085 13.84165561 69469 AO-13 1 19216U 89147.06007421 0.00000137 10000-3 0 364 2 19216 57.2077 206.1830 6723768 204.7577 96.6993 2.09696457 7298 OKEAN 1 1 19274U 88 56 A 89164.11336527 .00003033 00000-0 44894-3 0 4004 2 19274 82.5165 140.3874 0021118 243.7033 116.1904 14.74768465 50485 Meteor 3-2 1 19336U 89166.97721957 0.00000391 10000-2 0 2032 2 19336 82.5436 176.5168 0018294 144.9309 215.3015 13.16850817 42755 NOAA 11 1 19531U 89165.29545890 0.00000748 43625-3 0 914 2 19531 98.9386 109.3234 0011083 240.2040 119.8032 14.11027479 37067 TDRS 3 1 19548U 88 91 B 89153.77764324 .00000129 00000-0 99999-4 0 261 2 19548 0.5410 85.9584 0002050 10.4654 263.5580 1.00263057 1649 GPS-0014 1 19802U 89 13 A 89158.52933344 .00000015 00000-0 99999-4 0 407 2 19802 55.1209 212.1893 0068654 156.4879 203.9307 2.00555259 2233 Meteor 2-18 1 19851U 89166.82178849 0.00000117 10000-3 0 466 2 19851 82.5205 160.3208 0014366 319.5279 40.4811 13.83805692 14899 TDRS 4 1 19883U 89 21 B 89150.45403160 -.00000234 00000-0 99999-4 0 175 2 19883 0.3186 66.7990 0006825 40.4800 252.7331 1.00552150 49 1989 033C 1 19970U 89146.89292825 0.00004135 15448-2 0 187 2 19970 27.9756 326.5141 6561442 22.7737 356.2819 3.21038637 706 Cosmos 2020 1 19986U 89167.00035284 0.00713491 34818-4 33909-3 0 650 2 19986 64.7730 355.9562 0129120 90.4929 271.2069 16.04503107 4755 1989 037A 1 20000U 89166.71735513 0.00273342 20071-4 19406-3 0 544 2 20000 69.9458 15.2671 0062488 74.7482 286.1528 16.11421323 3590 1987 020DA 1 20004U 89144.20894406 0.00000016 10000-3 0 19 2 20004 73.6361 174.3386 0118944 257.9904 103.3069 12.82100499 65749 RESURS-F 1 20006U 89166.67758184 0.00125228 60541-5 17209-3 0 460 2 20006 82.2956 17.0495 0008737 226.6604 133.3319 16.06021047 3428 Cosmos 2022 1 20024U 89171.48389838 -.00000011 10000-3 0 284 2 20024 64.8186 51.1778 0002787 256.0200 104.0194 2.13102832 439 Cosmos 2023 1 20025U 89170.83886862 -.00000011 10000-3 0 226 2 20025 64.8299 51.1845 0013579 211.1666 148.8240 2.13102147 425 Cosmos 2024 1 20026U 89171.00578873 -.00000011 10000-3 0 227 2 20026 64.8293 51.1936 0009099 266.3727 93.5919 2.13204765 421 1989 034E 1 20028U 89165.82785840 -.00000011 10000-3 0 79 2 20028 64.8227 51.3734 0013710 319.3576 40.5899 2.13482574 261 SuperBird A 1 20040U 89164.83976205 -.00000061 10000-3 0 53 2 20040 0.0589 106.6155 0024119 129.0388 124.2054 1.00477101 45 1989 041B 1 20041U 89169.19624996 0.00000177 0 35 2 20041 0.2215 154.2023 0004192 76.1585 129.5380 1.00405326 70 1989 041C 1 20042U 89168.10990423 -.00000034 0 63 2 20042 6.8178 44.7963 7296662 186.0660 152.7631 2.28322545 163 Cosmos 2026 1 20045U 89167.73580662 0.00000211 20907-3 0 286 2 20045 82.9416 354.7945 0038722 268.5466 91.1249 13.75015640 1312 1989 042B 1 20046U 89168.96131981 -.00005555 -56739-2 0 198 2 20046 82.9396 353.8706 0033679 260.9527 98.7820 13.76496661 1488 Molniya3-35 1 20052U 89170.86814449 0.00000371 10000-3 0 195 2 20052 62.8298 102.7900 7375278 288.3005 9.4202 2.00613385 230 1989 043B 1 20053U 89172.10332687 0.01141245 11099-4 16066-2 0 216 2 20053 62.8087 57.8762 0167961 121.8829 240.0133 15.83855307 1952 1989 043C 1 20054U 89171.10550870 0.00970983 36811-4 13234-2 0 190 2 20054 62.8182 62.2949 0235263 118.2021 244.3986 15.70538878 1793 1989 043D 1 20055U 89165.88958216 0.00000455 10000-3 0 75 2 20055 62.8288 103.4717 7416953 288.2227 9.1993 1.95976832 121 GPS-0013 1 20061U 89172.22887616 -.00000029 0 100 2 20061 54.5674 30.5182 0045663 166.7632 193.4094 2.01613355 259 1989 044B 1 20062U 89172.12447715 0.01608897 -18830-4 15086-2 0 209 2 20062 30.3143 316.5814 0435173 127.1526 237.0906 15.29733503 1557 1989 044C 1 20063U 89167.70948600 0.00199043 16146-4 23120-2 0 142 2 20063 37.5856 23.2517 6055214 202.8567 111.5172 4.06099284 268 1989 045A 1 20064U 89168.72805379 -.00000099 0 61 2 20064 65.8409 61.6686 0023799 347.2999 13.1717 15.22823656 495 1989 045B 1 20065U 89168.46233429 0.00012092 49289-3 0 100 2 20065 65.8419 62.4836 0029338 353.5280 6.5381 15.24355280 455 1989 047A 1 20073U 89171.61525562 0.00330158 65250-5 24399-3 0 95 2 20073 69.9839 77.0797 0056920 56.9548 303.8008 16.11540628 684 1989 047B 1 20074U 89171.83338591 0.14568236 21638-4 50442-3 0 199 2 20074 69.9745 76.2480 0011181 40.3745 320.1520 16.43465185 722 -- Dr TS Kelso Asst Professor of Space Operations tkelso@blackbird.afit.af.mil Air Force Institute of Technology ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 20 Jun 89 18:11 EST From: Subject: RE: Nemesis and Pluto's chaotic orbit Steve Rehrauer writes: >I seem to recall a thread here some time ago about the "Nemesis" theory >of a large solar companion out in the hinterlands. If my oft-faulty >memory serves me this time, I seem to recall that the supporters of the >Nemesis idea have used "otherwise unexplainable" quirks in Pluto's orbit >as circumstantial evidence to support it. > >Well, I was interested to read in the May/June issue of _The_Planetary_ >Report_ that there is observational evidence that many small bodies in >space -- e.g.: Saturn's moon, Hyperion; many asteroids and comets; and >_Pluto_ -- actually have chaotic orbits. > >If true, along with the somewhat disquieting notion that "the eternal >clockwork" of the heavens is ultimately NOT very eternal, it would seem >to chop off one of the thickest legs the Nemesis people presently stand >upon. Perhaps Pluto's orbit is quirky simply because it IS. We had an interesting talk about this exact problem at the American Astronomical Society meeting last week. The question really is, what does it mean that a planet's orbit is chaotic? Many people mistakenly assume, and I have to include myself in that group as well, that a chaotic orbit is one that will do something really crazy at some time (like Pluto being a moon of Neptune long ago), something that we cannot predict. It is only the last half of that statement that is true. A chaotic orbit is one which cannot be predicted, in the sense that a second orbit, with only minutely different initial conditions, will diverge from the first at an exponential rate. In other words, we are not able to predict, after a certain length of time, exactly where the first orbit will be. It DOES NOT mean that the first orbit will suddenly go crazy on you! In the case of Pluto, it seems that predictions cannot be made on timescales longer than about 800 million years. Thus, we cannot determine with computer orbital simulations where in the solar nebula Pluto was formed. In a similar vein, it seems that the rest of the Solar System, including Earth (!!), is also chaotic! Nevertheless, we know that the Earth has not deviated very much from its 1 AU orbit - the fossil record back several billion years proves that. Remember, chaos does not imply anarchy, only that we cannot PREDICT what has happened and what is going to happen! -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Arnold Gill | If you don't complain to those who | Queen's University at Kingston | implemented the problem, you have | BITNET: gill@qucdnast | no right to complain at all ! | -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- ------------------------------ End of SPACE Digest V9 #510 *******************