Return-path: X-Andrew-Authenticated-as: 7997;andrew.cmu.edu;Ted Anderson Received: from beak.andrew.cmu.edu via trymail for +dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr11/tm2b/space/space.dl@andrew.cmu.edu (->+dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr11/tm2b/space/space.dl) (->ota+space.digests) ID ; Sun, 10 Dec 89 01:31:04 -0500 (EST) Message-ID: Reply-To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU From: space-request+@Andrew.CMU.EDU To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU Date: Sun, 10 Dec 89 01:30:41 -0500 (EST) Subject: SPACE Digest V10 #331 SPACE Digest Volume 10 : Issue 331 Today's Topics: The National Science Trust (long) Re: Multi-national (MANNED) Mars Mission Re: Mars rovers Re: Manned vs Unmanned Mission to Mars ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 8 Dec 89 16:41:51 PST From: mordor!lll-tis!ames!scubed!pnet01.cts.com!jim@angband.s1.gov (Jim Bowery) To: crash!space@angband.s1.gov Subject: The National Science Trust (long) The recent talk about "prizes" and "subsidies" and the consequent enthusiasm it has generated, motivated me to publicly release the following white paper which has been in circulation among some of the people involved with HR2674. As this paper will make clear, it is better to give money for value received than it is to award "prizes" or provide "subsidies." Of course, the approach described here won't work for everything, but it will work for a surprising range of science and technology areas. ----------------------------------------------------------------- The National Science Trust A Science and Technology Policy White Paper By James A. Bowery (Copyright 1989) (The public may copy and excerpt, but not modify this document.) Policy Statement For the enhancement of scientific knowlege and the required development of advanced technology, A National Science Trust shall be established, with funding authorized by Congress, for the purchase of information about the natural world from Eligible Parties (private entities owned and controlled by other such entities in the U.S. or its unified free- trade partners). No less than 2/3 of the components and services used by the Eligible Parties to acquire this information must be obtained from other Eligible Parties. The National Academy of Sciences shall identify areas of scientific interest in which the quality of research results are quantifiable -- primarily in terms of information content. Examples of these kinds of research results are: DNA sequencing (human genome project), digital imaging of various phenomena (astronomical, planetary, terrestrial ozone-layer monitoring), quantitative behavior of systems in microgravity, quantitative mineral assay of various sites (terrestrial and nonterrestrial), etc. A dollar amount, to be established in conjunction with Congress, shall be associated with each informative item and with varying degrees of accuracy of the information. That dollar amount will then be appropriated to The Trust to be paid out only in the event that an Eligible Party has delivered new information on the associated item of interest to a designated recipient. When a measurement has already been made, payout will be limited to information value corresponding to the increased confidence level of the measurement (e.g. additional significant bits or fractions thereof). In areas where an information flow is required (periodic sampling) the value of various sampling frequencies at the various degrees of accuracy (significant bits) will be included in the valuation of the measurement. Duplicate information flows will share the cash flow evenly. For superior information flows, the incremental increase in accuracy will enjoy less diluted access to funding flows allocated to those incremental increases in accuracy. Income on The Trust will be used to adjust The Trust for inflation. Additional income from The Trust may be used to fund items within The Trust. In the event that an item is measured by a Party which is not an Eligible Party, and that information is available to the designated recipient -- the corresponding funding will be redistributed within The Trust. After-inflation losses will be redistributed within The Trust, deactivating items which are not currently being pursued by any Eligible Party. Lunar Mapping Corporation: A Plausible Scenario Here is a plausible scenario as an illustration of how The Fund might work with private industry to provide scientific results and also to enable commercial technology development: Among many other items of interest, NAS examines the idea of a Lunar Hydrogen Map. It generates a function mapping spatial and grey-scale resolutions to relative scientific value. In conjunction with Congress, total scientific value is translated to dollar value of $150 million. There being reason to believe Eligible Parties can pursue the acquisition of a Lunar Hydrogen Map based on available funding and other related items, Congress appropriates the corresponding funds to The Trust. The recipient is designated to be the NASA Space Engineering Research Center for Utilization of Local Planetary Resources. NAS, having gone through a similar exercise for a large number of other measurements, has also succeeded in convincing Congress to fund optical, infrared and ultraviolet maps (along with a myriad of other measurements in space and on Earth). The Trust, in its first year, contains $3 billion with a total of $250 million allocated to lunar mapping items. Some young engineers, dissatisfied with the slow pace of activity at JPL, realize they can obtain a map of hydrogen and also higher resolution maps of the moon in infrared, optical and UV wavelengths than previously acquired, all in one mission. Plugging their accuracies into the corresponding value functions, they calculate a total value for their potential mission at $200 million. Comparing this value to the cost of flying the mission (including the development of some new imaging technologies) and the estimated time until they get paid, adjusting for interest rates, they believe they can provide, a profit of $75 million on an investment of $125 million within one year. They also project that with the probable addition of future Trust items such as similar Mars maps and more specialized follow-up Lunar mapping, there will be even higher profits within 5 years. Some major potential investors, being suspicious of the new imaging technologies that would be required, ask that the engineers demonstrate the imaging technologies prior to entering a business venture based on them. Other investors, including Space Studies Institute, are willing to bet the engineers can solve the technology problem and go ahead with the formation of Lunar Imaging Corporation whose first task is to demonstrate the feasibility of the imaging systems. These investors enjoy the acquisition of a large share in the corporation with a low-cost, high-risk buy in. The technology is demonstrated and patents applied for within 2 months. LIC's stock doubles in value as the more cautious, larger investors chip in, buying out some of the high-risk investors who have a number of similar technology development opportunities to go after. One of the imaging patents is licensed to a firm that sells manufacturing inspection systems for quality control. The cautious investors capitalize LIC at $140 million even though the technology is demonstrated and it is already making sales. LIC makes a public announcement that it is planning to acquire the 4 Lunar maps funded by the Trust, within 10 months based on a patented imaging technology. Lockheed, Rockwell and TRW drop their competing feasibility studies after looking into the patent disclosures and the backgrounds of LIC's founders and investors. The space transportation requirements of the mission are put out to bid and a number of Eligible Parties respond. Some aerospace consultants are hired to evaluate the credibility of the bids. They discard the one by Gary Hudson, Inc., even though it was the lowest, because it would probably explode on the pad and thus could not be insured. Art Dula's company provides the most credible bid, but being based on the Soviet Proton, his company is declared Ineligible. Mr. Dula considers a law suit but finds other business with a Canadian firm. LIC's consultants settle on a proposal from Launch Integrators, Inc. LII uses an Orbital Sciences upper stage and a booster from Trump Space Services Inc. (which bought AMROC at the auction block when it went bankrupt, replacing all management) contingent on 3 successful flights of the hybrid booster within the next 6 months. Since LII adheres to the ANSI Payload Mounting Standard, LIC can fall back on a higher bid by General Dynamics using its Centaur upper stage, upon which the Standard was based. Fabrication of the Lunar Multispectral Mapper begins as Trump Space Services, being under the same 6 month deadline from several other customers, hires back Jim French and a number of other AMROC old-timers with compensation for the inconvenience of immediately quitting their current jobs and relocating (most of the best people left AMROC before it went belly-up and hold jobs in other parts of the country). Some bureaucrats from Johnson Space Center, continuing NASA's old habits, attempt to intimidate some of TSSI's vendors by questioning "the feasibility of awarding your company follow-on contracts." Donald Trump and investment partners, hearing of this subtrifuge, pull some strings in Washington and the FBI initiates an investigation. Suddenly, products are flowing from TSSI's vendors and the first booster test firing takes place within 3 months -- only one month late. It fails, but 4 other boosters are already in winding with one going through final check out. The problem with the first system is analyzed and found to be a faulty pump from one of the intimidated vendors. TSSI's engineers discover the original blueprints unnecessarily used an aerospace pump that could be replaced by a standard industrial LOX pump from a company with no aerospace connections. They do an appropriate engineering modification on the remaining boosters. They are delayed another month. LIC takes delivery on the last of the LMSM components and is far enough along in fabrication that integrated subsystem testing begins in earnest. The new-technology gamma-ray spectrometer, experiences some reliability problems due to tricks used to lower its high power requirements. One of the major investors ($25 million) gets antsy and withdraws. Jim French, familiar with the engineers from his JPL days and their patent, is confident they can resolve the reliability problem in short order and talks the Board of Directors of TSSI into pulling together a stop-gap purchase of LIC stock at a low price. The engineers determine they can increase reliability if they have more electrical storage capacity. They replace the light-weight storage system with a reliable automotive lead-acid battery system which weighs a lot more -- but there will be excess payload capacity on either launch service anyway. The reliability problem is resolved and the skitish investor wants back in. The other LIC investors, concerned about a potential conflict of interest with TSSI representatives on the Board, buy back TSSI's holding at a higher price, reselling it to the conservative investor. TSSI walks off with a viable customer and a 25% return on $25 million in 2 months. TSSI has its first successful test. LIC completes system integration and starts system testing. No major problems. TSSI has its second successful test. LIC's CEO decides that TSSI's two month delay will not allow them to meet the 6 month deadline and contacts Ed Bock at General Dynamics about the possibility of a fall back launch on an Atlas-Centaur. It turns out that a NASA TDRS is behind in fabrication and an Atlas-Centaur is available from their production stream within LIC's calendar requirements. LIC's CEO negotiates a $5 million reduction on GD's bid and places a $1 million retainer on the launch opportunity in case TSSI fails to meet the 6 month deadline. The 6 month deadline passes. TSSI doesn't launch on time. Being unwilling to incur the additional interest expenses imposed by further delays, LIC's CEO exercises his cancellation clause with LII and his retainer on GD's launch slot. GD's integration people begin modifying the Centaur's upper stage back to the ANSI Standard (it had been modified from the Standard for TDRS because NASA could not adhere to the Standard). The more conservative investors are relieved. Fortunately for LII and TSSI, as a result of the passage of the Space Transportation Services Act, they have several payloads contracted with DoD and SDIO, which are not sensitive to amortization schedules. TSSI and LII stay in business. The experienced GD ops people have no trouble pulling off a successful launch. The LMSM maps the lunar surface in all 4 spectra within 2 months. However, upon presentation of the maps to SERC, a fourier analysis of the the hydrogen map finds that it contains a more noise than was expected. Instead of acquiring to an accuracy of 3 bits per pixel, it has acquired only 2 good bits per pixel. After putting this accuracy into the valuation function established by the NAS, LIC is awarded only $150 million of the expected $200 million for the whole mission. The noise LIC engineers determine it is gaussian in nature and therefore they can recover the third bit (and the profitability of the venture) by gathering 4 more samples of their hydrogen map -- averaging out the noise. They acquire additional samples and deliver them to SERC which then authorizes the release of additional funds from the Trust. Over the next 8 months, the remaining $50 million is awarded to LIC. At the same time, additional quality is averaged into the other maps resulting in a $5 million bonus. LIC determines that the cost of continued operation of LMSM will more than pay for itself by the acquisition of an additional fractional bit in the hydrogen map, and continues gathering data. However, the flakey gamma-ray spectrometer gives out before they have acquired the next quantum in the valuation function, and they have to write off those additional operation expenses as a loss. They store the additional data in a vault on the unlikely chance that another firm may find it valuable in achieving the next quantum in the Lunar Hydrogen Map valuation function. End of Scenario Summary As illustrated in the above scenario, a National Science Trust could not only provide timely and valuable scientific data at a reasonable and predictable cost to the U.S. government, but it would spur the development of new, commercially useful, technologies under the disciplines of the private sector, rather than the environment of government contracting, which has proven itself to be less efficient. ----------------------------------------------------------------- --- Typical RESEARCH grant: $ Typical DEVELOPMENT contract: $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ ------------------------------ Date: 10 Dec 89 03:15:33 GMT From: cs.utexas.edu!jarvis.csri.toronto.edu!utgpu!utzoo!henry@tut.cis.ohio-state.edu (Henry Spencer) Subject: Re: Multi-national (MANNED) Mars Mission In article <1989Dec9.233516.13216@Solbourne.COM> stevem@Solbourne.COM writes: > I'm surprised that in the discussion over manned vs. unmanned the > subject of a multi-national mars mission has not come up yet (or > did I miss it ?). It's an occasional topic of discussion. (Almost no obvious topic is new.) > Personally I *like* the idea. I think the formation of a W.S.A. is > inevitable, its just a matter of when. The two big problems with a World Space Agency right now are both to be found in Washington, DC, USA: 1. The US is not prepared to trust the USSR with a vital role in a major US project, and indeed is reluctant to trust any nation with such a role, although it's worked out okay when they've tried it. 2. No other nation is prepared to trust the US to keep its promises on a major space project, since it has a history of breaking them. -- 1755 EST, Dec 14, 1972: human | Henry Spencer at U of Toronto Zoology exploration of space terminates| uunet!attcan!utzoo!henry henry@zoo.toronto.edu ------------------------------ Date: 9 Dec 89 23:43:27 GMT From: zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!sunybcs!uhura.cc.rochester.edu!rochester!dietz@tut.cis.ohio-state.edu (Paul Dietz) Subject: Re: Mars rovers Jorge Stolfi points out that a teleoperated rover can go much farther than a manned rover. This is undoubtedly true. However, it isn't of much comfort to those wanting an entirely unmanned program, because a teleoperated rover controlled by people on or near Mars (probably on Phobos or Deimos, the "PhD" mission) will be superior to a rover operated from Earth, since the time delay will be more than two orders of magnitude smaller. Paul F. Dietz dietz@cs.rochester.edu ------------------------------ Date: 7 Dec 89 16:53:12 GMT From: eru!luth!sunic!mcsun!ukc!icdoc!syma!nickw@BLOOM-BEACON.MIT.EDU (Nick Watkins) Subject: Re: Manned vs Unmanned Mission to Mars In article <1989Dec5.232559.7236@utzoo.uucp> henry@utzoo.uucp (Henry Spencer) writes: >In article <49077@bbn.COM> ncramer@labs-n.bbn.com (Nichael Cramer) writes: >You're still making the mistake of comparing small, unambitious unmanned >missions to big, ambitious manned ones. There were unmanned missions, >notably the original Voyager project (whose shrunken remnants became >Viking), that were planning to use the Saturn V because nothing else was >big enough. For that matter, the Mars sample-return/rover mission people >today clearly are badly cramped by the limitations of Titan/Centaur. Well. To quote from "Journey into Space" by Bruce Murray (pp.50-51): "...But NASA was not motivated to explore the planets systematically. This was because the Saturn 5 production line, then running full blast producing Apollo Moon rockets, would soon need new orders. What NASA really wanted, we at Caltech were dismayed to realise, was Mars missions that would require giant Saturn rockets. Never mind that Mariner 4 had just revealed a Moon-like Mars with a distressingly thin atmosphere that greatly complicated any landing there. Never mind that much basic knowledge of Mars's atmosphere and surface was needed before really ambitious new efforts to explore Mars should proceed. NASA instead promoted Saturn 5 to Mars as the next giant step. In one wild leap, Mariner 4's 575 pound spacecraft would be succeeded in NASA's plan by 50000 pound spaceships launched with the Saturn 5." Murray then explains how NASA declared the Atlas Centaur unavailable for planetary missions. Thus was born Voyager mark one, in order to sell the "Saturn 5 to Mars with automated biological laboratories" plan to the Space Science Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Later OMB killed the Saturn 5 Mars project in one of its more enlightened moves, allowing the missions which became Mariners 6 to 10 and Pioneer Venus to proceed on Centaurs. The "shrunken remnants" are described by Murray as "the most sophisticated and expensive automated spacecraft ever flown, down to the present." Interesting, I thought ... Nick "It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog" -- Nick Watkins, Space & Plasma Physics Group, School of Mathematical & Physical Sciences, Univ. of Sussex, Brighton, E.Sussex, BN1 9QH, ENGLAND JANET: nickw@syma.sussex.ac.uk BITNET: nickw%syma.sussex.ac.uk@uk.ac ------------------------------ End of SPACE Digest V10 #331 *******************