Return-path: X-Andrew-Authenticated-as: 7997;andrew.cmu.edu;Ted Anderson Received: from beak.andrew.cmu.edu via trymail for +dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr11/tm2b/space/space.dl@andrew.cmu.edu (->+dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr11/tm2b/space/space.dl) (->ota+space.digests) ID ; Tue, 18 Dec 1990 01:44:48 -0500 (EST) Message-ID: <4bPPf0K00VcJ46V049@andrew.cmu.edu> Precedence: junk Reply-To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU From: space-request+@Andrew.CMU.EDU To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU Date: Tue, 18 Dec 1990 01:44:17 -0500 (EST) Subject: SPACE Digest V12 #677 SPACE Digest Volume 12 : Issue 677 Today's Topics: MAJOR FLARE ALERT & MAGNETIC STORM WARNING UPDATE Astro-1 Status for 12/07/90 [1905 CST] (Forwarded) Administrivia: Submissions to the SPACE Digest/sci.space should be mailed to space+@andrew.cmu.edu. Other mail, esp. [un]subscription notices, should be sent to space-request+@andrew.cmu.edu, or, if urgent, to tm2b+@andrew.cmu.edu ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 12 Dec 90 01:57:04 MST From: std_oler%HG.ULeth.CA@vma.cc.cmu.edu (Cary Oler) Subject: MAJOR FLARE ALERT & MAGNETIC STORM WARNING UPDATE X-St-Vmsmail-To: ST%"space+@andrew.cmu.edu" -- MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT -- DECEMBER 11, 1990 Flare Event Summary Potential Impact Forecast Revised Prediction Charts --> Geomagnetic Storm Warning Update <-- --> High Latitude Auroral Storm Warning <-- -------- MAJOR ENERGETIC EVENT SUMMARY Solar activity was high today. A major class M6.5/SB flare occurred at 20:52 UT on 11 December, but was not accompanied by any significant radio emissions. The flare was associated with Region 6402 and occurred at a position of S11W80 very near the western limb. This flare was difficult to optically correlate since at that time, Regions 6397 and 6387 were all reported to be flaring during the event. It was later concluded that the event originated from Region 6402 and was rated as a very small bright subflare at optical wavelengths. Although this event did reach healthy x-ray levels, it will not have a terrestrial impact with the earth. A barrage of M-class flare activity occurred from the many active regions visible on the solar disk today. Most of the activity occurred in the northwest quadrant where most of the mature active regions are developing. A total of five M-class flares occurred today, all class M1 flares except for the major class M6 flare. The elevated flare activity has produced numerous SID/SWF's. A total of five SID's were numbered today, two of which have been confirmed as producing shortwave fades. The first confirmed SWF occurred at 20:46 UT and lasted until 21:56 UT. The second occurred at 22:55 UT and lasted until 23:40 UT. Both of these confirmed SWF's affected frequencies up to 13 MHz. The probability for further SID/SWF's is high for the next 48 hours, when several of the active regions responsible for the recent flaring should rotate beyond the west limb. The probability for M-class flaring is 70% over the next 24 hours. The probability declines to 65% for the 48 hour period and down to 60% within 72 hours. The decreased flaring probability is in response to the disappearance of the major active regions beyond the west limb. Old Regin 6368 appears to be relatively stable. It is large, however, and the trailer region has not yet fully rotated into view. The trailer region contained the magnetic delta configurations which could have spawned major flares, but didn't. Analysis of this region is of relatively high priority, considering the complexity that this region attained when it was last visible several weeks ago. More will be known within the next 24 hours. So far, however, old region 6368 is only listed as containing one large H-type spot and appears to be stable as the models suggested. GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING UPDATE Additional analysis of the data from the major flare of 10 December indicates that the interplanetary shock wave will likely not reach the earth until the mid or late part of 12 December. Current projections estimate impact between 10:00 UT and 24:00 UT on 12 December, corresponding to a planetary shock speed between 770 and 630 km/second. Geomagnetic activity is therefore not expected to increase until the mid to late part of the UT day on 12 December. The magnetic storm warning is continued particularly for the high latitude regions. High latitudes should experience at least minor storming with a risk of periods of major storming. Middle latitudes are still expected to remain mostly active with a risk of periods of minor storming. A slight risk still exists for major storming over high and middle latitudes, although it looks as though the activity at middle latitudes should remain confined to K-index values of 4 and 5 (corresponding to mostly active conditions with periods of minor storming). The effects of a well positioned coronal hole could also enhance geomagnetic activity, particularly on 13 December. HIGH LATITUDE AURORAL STORM WARNING An auroral storm warning has been issued for the high latitude regions for the UT day of 13 December. Auroral activity over high latitudes could reach high levels on this day. Middle latitudes are not currently expected to experience any auroral storming, although activity should reach at least moderate levels over the middle latitudes. A slight southward expansion of the auroral oval is expected on 13 December, which may place some northerly middle latitude regions within the auroral zone on the evening of 13 December. Overall activity is expected to decline to mostly unsettled levels by 14 December. The following forecasts have been revised to account for the new data which has been received. The previously revised prediction charts are still valid but will not be quite as accurate as the following revised predictions. Use the following prediction charts where possible. PLANETARY 10-DAY GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OUTLOOK (09 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER) ________________________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY SEVERE | | | | | | | | | | | VERY HIGH! | | VERY SEVERE STORM | | | | | | | | | | | HIGH | | SEVERE STORM | | | | | | | | | | | MODERATE | | MAJOR STORM | | | | | | | | | | | MODERATE | | MINOR STORM | | | | |** | | | | | | LOW | | VERY ACTIVE | | | | *|***|** | | | | | NONE - LOW | | ACTIVE | | | | **|***|***| * | | | * | NONE | | UNSETTLED | | | | **|***|***|***| **| **|***| NONE | | QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE | | VERY QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE | |-------------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|------------| | Geomagnetic Field |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| Anomaly | | Conditions | Given in 8-hour intervals | Intensity | |________________________________________________________________________| HF RADIO SIGNAL PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (09 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER) High Latitude Paths ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | | GOOD | *| *|* | | | | | | | | | FAIR |** |** | **|* | | *|* *|***|***|* *| | POOR | | | | * | *|** | * | | | * | | VERY POOR | | | | *|** | | | | | | | EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | PROPAGATION |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| | QUALITY | Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals | -------------------------------------------------------- Middle Latitude Paths ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY GOOD |***|***|***| | | | | | | | | GOOD | | | |* | | *|* *|***|***|* *| | FAIR | | | | * | *|** | * | | | * | | POOR | | | | *|** | | | | | | | VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | | EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | PROPAGATION |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| | QUALITY | Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals | -------------------------------------------------------- Low Latitude Paths ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY GOOD |***|***|***| | | | | *| *| | | GOOD | | | |* | *| *|***|** |** |***| | FAIR | | | | **|** |** | | | | | | POOR | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | | EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | PROPAGATION |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| | QUALITY | Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals | -------------------------------------------------------- NOTES: High latitudes >= 55 degree's north latitude Middle latitudes >= 40 < 55 degree's north latitude Low latitudes < 40 degree's north latitude POTENTIAL VHF DX PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (09 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER) INCLUDES SID AND AURORAL BACKSCATTER ENHANCEMENT PREDICTIONS HIGH LATITUDES __________________________________________________ ___________________ | SIGNAL | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | | SID ENHANCEMENT | | QUALITY |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T| |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| | VERY GOOD| | | | | | | | | | | 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |ABOVE NORM| | | | | | | | | | | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | NORMAL|***|***|***|** | |* *|***|***|* *|* *| 40%| | | | | | | | | | | |BELOW NORM| | | | *|***| * | | | * | * | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | VERY POOR| | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | BLACKOUT| | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===| |-------------------| | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 60% | | | | *|* *| | | | | | 60%| | | |*|*| | | | | | | 40% | | | | **|* *|* | | |* *|* *| 40%| | | |*|*|*| | |*|*| | 20% | **| **| **|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%| | |*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| |CHANCE OF |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T| | VHF DX | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |AURORAL BACKSCATTER| |__________|_______________________________________| |___________________| MIDDLE LATITUDES __________________________________________________ ___________________ | SIGNAL | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | | SID ENHANCEMENT | | QUALITY |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T| |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| | VERY GOOD| | | | | | | | | | | 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |ABOVE NORM| * | * | * | | | | | | | | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | NORMAL|* *|* *|* *|** | **|***|***|***|* *|* *| 40%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |BELOW NORM| | | | *|* | | | | * | * | 60%|*|*|*|*|*|*| | | | | | VERY POOR| | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | BLACKOUT| | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===| |-------------------| | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 60% | | | | *|* | | | | | | 60%| | | |*|*| | | | | | | 40% | * | * | **| **|** | | | | | | 40%| | | |*|*| | | | | | | 20% | **| **| **|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%| | |*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| |CHANCE OF |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T| | VHF DX | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |AURORAL BACKSCATTER| |__________|_______________________________________| |___________________| LOW LATITUDES __________________________________________________ ___________________ | SIGNAL | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | | SID ENHANCEMENT | | QUALITY |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T| |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| | VERY GOOD| | | | | | | | | | | 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |ABOVE NORM| * | * | * | | | | | | | | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | NORMAL|* *|* *|* *|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |BELOW NORM| | | | | | | | | | | 60%|*|*|*|*|*|*| | | | | | VERY POOR| | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | BLACKOUT| | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===| |-------------------| | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 60% | | | | | | | | | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 40% | * | * | * | **|** | * | * | * | * | * | 40%| | | | | | | | | | | | 20% | **| **| **|***|***|***| **| **| **| **| 20%| | | |*|*| | | | | | | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| |CHANCE OF |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T| | VHF DX | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |AURORAL BACKSCATTER| |__________|_______________________________________| |___________________| NOTES: These VHF DX prediction charts are defined for the 50 MHz to 220 MHz bands. They are based primarily on phenomena which can affect VHF DX propagation globally. They should be used only as a guide to potential DX conditions on VHF bands. Latitudinal boundaries are the same as those for the HF predictions charts. For more information, request the document "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" from: "std_oler@hg.uleth.ca". AURORAL ACTIVITY PREDICTIONS (09 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER) High Latitude Locations ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | | HIGH | | | |***| | | | | | | | MODERATE | | | |***|***| | | | | * | | LOW | | |***|***|***|***| * | * |***|***| | NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | AURORAL |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| | INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight | -------------------------------------------------------- Middle Latitude Locations ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | | HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | | MODERATE | | | |***| | | | | | * | | LOW | | | |***|***| * | | * |***|***| | NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | AURORAL |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| | INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight | -------------------------------------------------------- Low Latitude Locations ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | | HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | | MODERATE | | | | | | | | | | | | LOW | | | | * | | | | | | | | NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | AURORAL |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| | INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight | -------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: For more information regarding these charts, send a request for the document, "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" to: std_oler@hg.uleth.ca. ** End of Report ** ------------------------------ Date: 8 Dec 90 20:16:36 GMT From: trident.arc.nasa.gov!yee@ames.arc.nasa.gov (Peter E. Yee) Subject: Astro-1 Status for 12/07/90 [1905 CST] (Forwarded) Astro 1 Mission Report #33 7:05 p.m. CST, December 7, 1990 5/18:16 MET Spacelab Mission Operations Control Marshall Space Flight Center "We've been waiting for this one," remarked Payload Specialist Sam Durrance to Alternate Payload Specialist Ken Nordsieck as the Astro-1 observatory turned to one of the mission's most exciting targets, the planet Jupiter. Durrance and Nordsieck coordinated ultraviolet payload commands to lock on to the target using two of Jupiter's brightest moons, Io and Europa, as "guidestars." The Astronomer Galileo discovered the four brightest moons of Jupiter, including these two, when he first looked through the telescope in the 16th century. "Look at that!" exclaimed Durrance, as he guided the image, a large white dot, into the view of the guide camera. Science teams representing the Hopkins Ultraviolet Telescope, the Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope and Wisconsin Ultraviolet Photo Polarimeter gathered good spectral data of Jupiter's atmosphere which contains an "aurora" that releases molecular hydrogen emissions. According to ground controllers, HUT observed Jupiter for all 48 minutes of the scheduled observation, while UIT and WUPPE obtained 22 minutes of scientific data from this acquisition. ------------------------------ End of SPACE Digest V12 #677 *******************