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Date: Sun, 30 Dec 1990 02:08:19 -0500 (EST)
Subject: SPACE Digest V12 #692

SPACE Digest                                     Volume 12 : Issue 692

Today's Topics:
	       Could Iraq shoot down recon satellites?
	    SECTION 7 OF 8  -  U.S.T.R. PART I (uuencoded)

Administrivia:

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ReSent-Date: Fri, 14 Dec 90 14:56:34 -0500 (EST)
ReSent-From: "Todd L. Masco" <tm2b+@andrew.cmu.edu>
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Date:    Thu, 13 Dec 1990 8:11:15 CST
From: HIGGINS@DALE.FNAL.GOV (Bill Higgins-- Beam Jockey)
Subject: Could Iraq shoot down recon satellites?
X-Vmsmail-To: SMTP%"space-request+@andrew.cmu.edu"

Iraq is under the watchful eyes of a number of superpower
reconnaissance satellites in low orbit.  It's not a *large* number.  

Iraq has built its own ballistic missiles, variations on the Soviet
"Scud."

Suppose you're an Iraqi missile engineer. Suppose Saddam Hussein
called you and your colleaques in and said, "Boys, I want you to turn
those missiles into anti-satellite weapons as soon as you can." Could
you do it?  [Note that I am supposing you are a boy, too, a reasonable
conjecture in the Iraqi defense establishment. (-:]

--Delivery vehicles which can reach range R ought, in a naive
analysis, to be able to reach an altitude of .7071R (that is,
[sqrt(2)/2]R, assuming a 45-degree launch angle gets you the maximum
range).   R was about 500 km last I looked.

--This should be enough to get you to orbital altitude, but not
orbital speed.  Then you put an essentially stationary payload in the
path of a fast-moving satellite.  This is more or less the method
employed by the (defunct) American air-launched ASAT missile.

--You don't need a precision-guided homing vehicle to damage your
target satellite.  Arrive at a point on the satellite's orbit just as
the satellite is arriving there too.  Fill some volume of space with
small metal pellets.  Oldest trick in the book.  (The book is *The
Exploration of Space*, Arthur C. Clarke, 1950.)

--Hence the problem hinges on making the cloud of pellets (volume
which has pellets above some density with high kill probablilty)
larger than the probable error of the delivery vehicle.   This is
probably very tough.  I know the Iraqi IRBMs are not very accurate.  I
should do some numbers.  Guess I'll do a follow-up posting soon.

--Tracking your targets is quite do-able.  Are they listed in the
Two-Line Elements?  Could Iraq get these from Kelso's BBS in Ohio?  If
not, optical or radar tracking could be kluged up.  It's be nice to
have observations.

--Recon sats can manuver.  If you attack one, the allies will move all
the others.  And they will keep jinking if necessary (how often? Once
a day?) I presume the Iraqis would be hard pressed to keep up with
this. Therefore:

--A surprise attack, taking out all adversary satellites in a short
time, is called for.  This is a one-shot deal, so you'd better play
this card it until it's militarily useful.  It could be used to cover
preparations for a sudden attack.

--If you are fully successful,  the other guys will be blind until
more low-orbit satellites can be launched.  I am fairly sure the
Soviets could have one up in a week or two.   I am fairly sure the
USAF will take several months.

--If you are partly successful, you may at least create a gap in photo
coverage, a recurring period of time when you may safely move your
forces around without being observed optically.

--This trick will not work on high-altitude satellites. I believe
geosynchronous orbit is used mostly for signals-intelligence and
missile-warning spacecraft, not high-resolution photoreconnaissance. 
So the allied capability will be somewhat crippled, but there will
still be some intelligence flowing from space.

--In particular, the ICBM-warning birds will probably see your
launches, so your adversaries will know exactly what you're up to.
(Hmm... can we make them look like gas-well fires?  (-:  I guess not.)

--The usefulness of this idea is dubious in the current context of
Iraqi military operations.  It's still an interesting excercise.   It
may apply to some other IRBM-packing nation in some future conflict.
                                                                          
     O~~*           /_) ' / /   /_/ '  ,   ,  ' ,_  _           \|/       
   - ~ -~~~~~~~~~~~/_) / / /   / / / (_) (_) / / / _\~~~~~~~~~~~zap!      
 /       \                          (_) (_)                    / | \      
 |       |                      Bill Higgins
 \       /                      Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory
   -   -                        Bitnet:                HIGGINS@FNALB.BITNET
     ~                          Internet:             HIGGINS@FNAL.FNAL.GOV
                                SPAN/Hepnet/Physnet:         43011::HIGGINS

------------------------------

Date:    Thu, 13 Dec 90 21:40:51 MST
From: std_oler%HG.ULeth.CA@vma.cc.cmu.edu (Cary Oler)
Subject: SECTION 7 OF 8  -  U.S.T.R. PART I (uuencoded)
X-St-Vmsmail-To: ST%"space+@andrew.cmu.edu"

    Uuencoded Document:  Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports - Part I

                              ------------------

                                SECTION 7 of 8

Strip all of the lines from this message down to and including the "cut" line
below.  Save the resulting message and collect the remaining sections of this
document.  After you have obtained all of the sections, combine all of the
parts into a single file (in the proper sequence).  Then uudecode the file.
This will decode the file and place the resulting document in the file
"part1.doc".  It may then be sent to a printer for printing.  Part II of
Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports must be handled in the same manner.


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End of SPACE Digest V12 #692
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