Return-path: X-Andrew-Authenticated-as: 7997;andrew.cmu.edu;Ted Anderson Received: from hogtown.andrew.cmu.edu via trymail for +dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr11/tm2b/space/space.dl@andrew.cmu.edu (->+dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr11/tm2b/space/space.dl) (->ota+space.digests) ID ; Fri, 28 Jun 91 03:11:21 -0400 (EDT) Message-ID: <4cOi4HK00WBw87Yk4r@andrew.cmu.edu> Precedence: junk Reply-To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU From: space-request+@Andrew.CMU.EDU To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU Date: Fri, 28 Jun 91 03:11:15 -0400 (EDT) Subject: SPACE Digest V13 #732 SPACE Digest Volume 13 : Issue 732 Today's Topics: POTENTIAL MAJOR TO SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING VERY SIGNIFICANT MAJOR SOLAR FLARE - HIGH IMPACT EXPECTED Re: NASA Budget Gonetz - KGB/GRU Lightsat service available Re: Fred Vote Thursday Re: Fred Vote Thursday Re: Mars "face" image data (uuencoded GIF format) Administrivia: Submissions to the SPACE Digest/sci.space should be mailed to space+@andrew.cmu.edu. Other mail, esp. [un]subscription requests, should be sent to space-request+@andrew.cmu.edu, or, if urgent, to tm2b+@andrew.cmu.edu ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 11 Jun 91 12:08:39 MDT From: oler <@BITNET.CC.CMU.EDU:oler@HG.ULeth.CA> (CARY OLER) Subject: POTENTIAL MAJOR TO SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING X-St-Vmsmail-To: st%"space+@andrew.cmu.edu" /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ POTENTIAL SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING 18:00 UT, 11 JUNE /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ WARNINGS ISSUED OR IN PROGRESS: - POTENTIAL MAJOR TO SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING - POTENTIAL MAJOR SOLAR FLARE WARNING (PROTON) - SATELLITE PROTON AND PCA ACTIVITY ALERT - POTENTIAL MAJOR GIC ANOMALY WARNING ATTENTION: The major class x12+/3B tenflare which occurred on 11 June is expected to have a major to severe terrestrial impact. Already, significant protons have arrived. The greater than 10 MeV proton levels gradually increased to a peak of 4,400 pfu at 14:25 UT on 11 June. The greater than 100 MeV protons increased to a peak of 66 pfu at 12:45 UT on 11 June. Protons at these energy levels have been decaying since that time. Another increase in protons should accompany the flare shock. A significant increase in greater than 1 MeV protons should also be witnessed concurrent with the shock arrival. At the present time, geomagnetic activity has subsided. The last disturbance appears to be waning. Significant increases in activity should therefore accompany the approaching flare shock. The shock from this major event is in transit at the present time and is expected to arrive here at the Earth anytime near or after 06:00 UT on 12 June. Conditions thereafter will deteriorate very rapidly. Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach at least major storm levels with a very real possibility for severe storming (A-indices > 100). Very intense geomagnetic activity should occur later in the UT day on 12 June and throughout most of the UT day on 13 June. Conditions should begin to recover on 14 June, although recovery will be long and slow. Significant HF degradation is expected. There is a risk for widespread HF blackouts when the main phase of this storm begins. Severe levels of fading, distortion and absorption can be expected to accompany this storm event. Conditions should begin to improve on 14 June, although a full recovery will take quite a few additional quiet days. The ionosphere will be very stressed during this period and will not be in good shape for communications. A very high probabiliby (> 80%) exists for widespread VHF backscatter communications later in the UT day of 12 June and on 13 June. Conditions should be very favorable for backscatter from the low and middle latitudes on these dates. High latitudes will also have significant opportunities for VHF backscatter, although the geometry required for backscatter will become increasingly unfavorable as geomagnetic activity approaches or surpasses severe storm levels. Extensive and widespread low-latitude auroral activity should become visible late in the UT day of 12 June and throughout most of the UT day of 13 June. If the impact from this flare event is as large as predicted, auroral storming may be observed as far south or perhaps even further south than Florida. Continent-wide sightings may also be possible over Australia and New Zealand. This is a significant storm warning. There is a risk that this storm event could be the largest since 1989, and may in fact become the largest event so far this solar cycle. PLEASE SEND ANY REPORTS OF DEGRADED RADIO PROPAGATION CONDITIONS, SIGHTINGS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY, VHF BACKSCATTER COMMUNICATIONS OR OTHER ANOMALIES TO: OLER@HG.ULETH.CA (INTERNET), OLER@ALPHA.ULETH.CA (USENET), OR (SNAIL-MAIL) TO: SOLAR TERRESTRIAL DISPATCH, P.O. BOX 357, STIRLING, ALBERTA, CANADA, T0K 2E0. PLEASE INCLUDE THE DATE AND TIME (LOCAL AND UT) OF THE OBSERVATION, THE APPROXIMATE LATITUDE/LONGITUDE OF THE OBSERVATION LOCATION, AND A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE PHENOMENA OBSERVED. WE THANK ALL THOSE WHO TAKE THE TIME TO SEND IN OBSERVATIONAL REPORTS. /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 11 Jun 91 00:42:09 MDT From: oler <@BITNET.CC.CMU.EDU:oler@HG.ULeth.CA> (CARY OLER) Subject: VERY SIGNIFICANT MAJOR SOLAR FLARE - HIGH IMPACT EXPECTED X-St-Vmsmail-To: st%"space+@andrew.cmu.edu" -- MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT -- JUNE 11, 1991 Flare Event Summary Potential Impact Assessment -------- MAJOR ENERGETIC EVENT SUMMARY A very powerful solar flare ripped out of Region 6659 on 11 June. The event began at 01:56 UT, peaked at 02:09 UT and ended at 04:40 UT on 11 June. This event saturated the GOES sensors. The x-rays surpassed the class X12 level for approximately 4 to 8 minutes before beginning a very slow decay. The optical component was rated 3B. The flare was located at a sensitive position of N31W20. This class X12+/3B tenflare remained in the X-class category for almost one full hour. The rate of decay was very gradual, as can be seen by the end-time of the event (almost 3 hours from start to end). This event is a very significant one. Energetic protons at greater than 100 MeV were observed shortly after the peak x-ray flux was observed. Protons at greater than 100 MeV peaked at 18 pfu at 05:25 UT. Current levels are near 16 pfu at greater than 100 MeV. Protons at greater than 10 MeV skyrocketed from about 10 pfu at 02:30 UT to 980 pfu at 05:15 UT. 10 MeV protons are currently fluctuating around the 340 to 380 pfu level. A major importance 3 Type II sweep and a major importance 3 Type IV sweep were observed from this event. Strong radio bursts have also been observed (most of which are still in progress). The 15400 MHz burst was measured at 28,000 sfu, while the 245 MHz burst was measured at 7,500 pfu. Please note that this is preliminary data and may not be entirely accurate. The integrated x-ray flux from this event was high, rated at 1.80 joules per square meter. Concurrent with this major flare was a severe geomagnetic excursion. The combined effects of the major to severe geomagnetic storming with the high-intensity x-ray levels produced a major HF blackout locally despite the low solar zenith angle. Widespread HF blackouts have been observed. A polar cap absorption event (PCA) has recurred with this most recent energetic event. Preliminary data indicates absorption levels are fluctuating around the 4 dB level. POTENTIAL TERRESTRIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT This class X12+/3B tenflare will have a major to severe terrestrial impact. The impact from this flare could surpass the intensity of the present disturbance (which is very near severe levels). A Major to Severe geomagnetic impact is expected anytime near or after 06:00 UT on 12 June. Conditions are expected to remain at major to severe storm levels until 14 June, when conditions should begin to fall to active to minor storm levels (again, barring additional powerful flaring). A Major to Severe auroral storm is expected to accompany this major interplanetary disturbance. There is a very high risk (>70%) for significant low-latitude auroral activity on 12 June and 13 June. The highest probabilities for low-latitude auroral activity will occur on 13 June, with a smaller chance (~ 45%) for residual low-latitude activity on 14 June. June 12-14 (centered on 13 June) represents a very high risk period for low-latitude auroral activity. A very strong HF radio propagation impact is expected to accompany this major disturbance. Despite the fact that we are presently experiencing significant HF disruptions from the present disturbance (which was caused by the less powerful X12+/3B flare of 09 June), conditions are expected to become further disturbed when the interplanetary shock from this last major flare arrives on 12 June. Widespread HF blackouts may accompany this disturbance on 13 June. A very high probability (> 80%) for VHF auroral backscatter communications will exist for 13 June. We are presently experiencing conditions very favorable for VHF backscatter. Conditions should become most favorable on 13 June. High latitude regions are not expected to have particularly good opportunities for VHF backscatter. This activity is expected to dominate over the middle and low latitude regions (particularly the middle latitudes). The ionosphere will not recover to significantly useful levels throughout the remainder of this week. It will require several quiet days to strengthen to levels useful for reliable long-distance communication, and these quiet periods are not expected to occur for the next 7 to 10 days. Further major X-class flares are possible from Region 6659, although over the next 24 hours, predominatly minor M-class flares should be observed. High energy events are possible from this Region. White light flares may be possible. ** End of Alert ** ------------------------------ Date: 11 Jun 91 17:35:12 GMT From: news-server.csri.toronto.edu!utzoo!kcarroll@uunet.uu.net (Kieran A. Carroll) Subject: Re: NASA Budget In article <1991Jun7.210944.22123@sequent.com> szabo@sequent.com writes: >In article <18194@venera.isi.edu> cew@venera.isi.edu (Craig E. Ward) writes: > >>>The American Geophysical Union recognizes that passage of this >>>amendment would do serious damage to future space science programs >> >>With all due respect, the AGU is wrong and is playing the role of a patsy for >>non-space special interests. > >...you don't know what the hell you are talking about... >Calling the AGU "non-space" is like calling Boeing "non-airplane" ... It seems pretty obvious that Craig was >not< calling the AGU "non-space". The term "non-space" in his posting sure looks like it referred to the "special interests" that were "making patsies" of the AGU. You should read people's postings more carefully, Nick, before letting loose at them. If you actually care about what they think, that is, beyond the fact that they've reached a different conclusion than you. -- Kieran A. Carroll @ U of Toronto Aerospace Institute uunet!attcan!utzoo!kcarroll kcarroll@zoo.toronto.edu ------------------------------ Date: 11 Jun 91 19:34:25 GMT From: well!antenna@apple.com (Robert Horvitz) Subject: Gonetz - KGB/GRU Lightsat service available The 1 June 1991 issue of Jane's Defence Weekly has an article on "lightsats" - lightweight, low-orbit, low-cost, short-lived satellites (pp. 926-7). Included is a brief description of "the only truly operational lightsat system in the world," run by the Soviet Union: "The most recent generation is known as 'Sextet' in the West and is launched in groups of six on Proton boosters. The currently active constellation of 24 small satellites is referred to by the Soviets as Gonetz (Messenger). Gonetz is believed to be used by the KGB and the GRU for store-and-forward messaging because their low earth orbit periodically places them out of range of receiving stations. It is unclear what, if any, distinction exists between the military and civilian versions of Gonetz. "Last year, an international consortium was formed to market Gonetz worldwide for civilian digital relay of voice, fax and data from isolated locations to hub stations. Within the USA, marketing services are provided for the Consortium of Small Satellite Constructors and Service Providers (COSSCASP) by New York-based DYJ Technologies..." Does anyone have more information about this system? Like, how much it costs, and what the phone/address of DYJ Technologies is? What frequencies it uses? Data formats, etc.? -- !.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.|.!.| Robert Horvitz 1122-1/2 E St. SE Washington, DC 20003-2232 USA uucp: ...uunet!capital!rhorvitz ------------------------------ Date: 12 Jun 91 00:46:18 GMT From: hub.ucsb.edu!ucsbuxa!3001crad@ucsd.edu (Charles Frank Radley) Subject: Re: Fred Vote Thursday In article <676362297.48@egsgate.FidoNet.Org> Allen.W..Sherzer@f98.n250.z1.FidoNet.Org (Allen W. Sherzer) writes: >In article <30555@hydra.gatech.EDU> ccoprmd@prism.gatech.EDU (Matthew DeLuca) >writes: >>Maybe this near-death will scare the Freedom people into getting some >>hardware built... The schedules we have been working to do not require delivery of hardware until 1993. We have been on schedule all along. Why do people keep complaining the hardware has not been built, we have to design it first.....and we have not even had a PDR yet. Well, we did, but congress cancelled it and told us to have another one. We will continue to save costs wherever possible.... There are various ways this could be done. But we have discussed this before. ------------------------------ Date: 12 Jun 91 05:06:04 GMT From: sequent!muncher.sequent.com!szabo@uunet.uu.net Subject: Re: Fred Vote Thursday In article <12031@hub.ucsb.edu> 3001crad@ucsbuxa.ucsb.edu (Charles Frank Radley) writes: >The schedules we have been working to do not require delivery of >hardware until 1993. We have been on schedule all along. When people beleive Big Lies, they don't mess around. :-) When Reagan first announced Fred, it was supposed to be completed, and inhabited by a crew of 8, by 1992. It was supposed to cost $8 billion. Or so NASA said. As of 1991, it is not supposed to be inhabited by a crew of 4 until 2000, and the 30-year projection is $80 billion (what NASA says now) or $120 billion (GAO). In other words, NASA is 8 years behind schedule -- one year of schedule slip per year. Which brings up the interesting question: assuming Fred and its champions survive in the NASA leadership and Congress through 2000, what will be the estimated date of completion at that time? Anybody want to start a betting pool? :-) -- Nick Szabo szabo@sequent.com "If you understand something the first time you see it, you probably knew it already. The more bewildered you are, the more successful the mission was." -- Ed Stone, Voyager space explorer ------------------------------ Date: 12 Jun 91 04:55:35 GMT From: sequent!muncher.sequent.com!szabo@uunet.uu.net Subject: Re: Mars "face" image data (uuencoded GIF format) I hereby propose a contest. Who is the first person who can discover the Venus Face from the Magellan data? The prize is a free Dan Quayle calendar. -- Nick Szabo szabo@sequent.com "If you understand something the first time you see it, you probably knew it already. The more bewildered you are, the more successful the mission was." -- Ed Stone, Voyager space explorer ------------------------------ End of SPACE Digest V13 #732 *******************