Date: Sun, 18 Oct 92 05:01:36 From: Space Digest maintainer Reply-To: Space-request@isu.isunet.edu Subject: Space Digest V15 #324 To: Space Digest Readers Precedence: bulk Space Digest Sun, 18 Oct 92 Volume 15 : Issue 324 Today's Topics: Comet Swift-Tuttle observation Commercial Space News #17 (2 msgs) motions of astronouts Perot and Freedom Pres Debate & military spending Welcome to the Space Digest!! Please send your messages to "space@isu.isunet.edu", and (un)subscription requests of the form "Subscribe Space " to one of these addresses: listserv@uga (BITNET), rice::boyle (SPAN/NSInet), utadnx::utspan::rice::boyle (THENET), or space-REQUEST@isu.isunet.edu (Internet). ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: 18 Oct 92 00:16:52 GMT From: Earl W Phillips Subject: Comet Swift-Tuttle observation Newsgroups: sci.space,sci.astro At {roughly 21:01:45 10/16/92 UT. It was very diffuse,{{ {unsymmetrical coma, mottled, grey-bluish, slightly brighter nucleus{, no tail discernible.{{ Slight brighteb\ning al~rong it's {east {sid{e. Used the {32" F/16.;M Casse{grain @ Perkins Observatory, near Delaware, Oh{: Lat:40.25111, Long:83.055418. The circ{les on the scope said the {comet was roughly at RA:{{14h28.5; DEC:+56.4d. ***************************************************************** * | ====@==== ///////// * * ephillip@magnus.ircc.ohio-state.edu| ``________// * * | `------' * * -JR- | Space;........the final * * | frontier............... * ***************************************************************** ------------------------------ Date: 17 Oct 92 11:04:25 From: Wales.Larrison@ofa123.fidonet.org Subject: Commercial Space News #17 Newsgroups: sci.space COMMERCIAL SPACE NEWS 17 This is number seventeen in an irregular series on developments in commercial space activities. The commentaries included are my thoughts on these developments. As you folks can probably guess, this column gets put together on lunch hours at work and at home after the kids go to bed. I try to cover here some of the lesser known and interesting commercial space developments I run across, so I don't always report on the same topics that Aviation Week and Space News cover. There's always more than enough information out there. While the past month's commercial space news has been pretty calm, I've been busy following the Congressional doings on the US government space budgets. In particular, the last article in this column was generated from those Congressional budgetary actions. I cut this issue off at 8 articles instead of the usual 10 or more, since I had a reasonable natural break point on this. Contents - 1- CHINA GRANTED EXPORT WAIVERS TO LAUNCH 6 SATS WITH US PARTS 2- CHINA COMMENCES APT SAT CO VENTURE 3- UKRAINE GOVERNMENT LOOKS FOR US SPACE INDUSTRIAL PARTNERS 4- VANDENBERG OPENING DOORS TO COMMERCIAL LAUNCHES 5- ANOTHER BAN ON SATELLITE RECEIVERS PUT IN PLACE 6- AUSTRALIAN SPACE INDUSTRY MOVES FORWARD 7- SOUTH AFRICA TESTS ROCKET MOTOR DESIGNED FOR COMMERCIAL VEHICLE 8- TIME TO START TOWARDS A COMMERCIAL GPS -- Commentary ARTICLES ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1- CHINA GRANTED EXPORT WAIVERS TO LAUNCH 6 SATS WITH US PARTS In a little-noticed action on 11 Sep, the US State Department announced export restriction waivers were granted for 6 satellites planned for launch on the Chinese Long March launch vehicle. These waivers, signed off by President Bush, covered Asia-Pacific Satellite (APSTAR), Asiasat 2, Intelsat VIIA, STARSAT, AfriStar and Dong Fang Hong 3. As reported by the State Department, the export waivers followed a determination the People's Republic of China has begun adhering to the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). In June 1991, trade sanctions were imposed on China as a protest of China's sale of missiles to Syria and Pakistan. In return, China offered to abide by the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) if such sanctions were lifted. After a period of negotiations and public recriminations, the sanctions were lifted in March 1992. An interagency export review team was set up to study satellite projected headed for China, and these waivers are a result of that team's review. As reported by the State department, the team determined that all six projects included adequate safeguards to prevent unauthorized diversion of U.S. satellite technology. The satellite projects included the launch of US-built satellites, like the APSAT being built by Hughes for a Hong Kong consortium (including Thai and Chinese partners), and those which were dependent upon US-manufactured components, such as the Dong Fang Hong 3, which incorporated US-made amplifiers. [Commentary: I listed this new item as it indicates how international trade and politics influence the US space business and in particular, how missile technology proliferation restrictions can restrict the international sale of space hardware. These waivers affect about $500 M in US export sales of space technology (which is about 10% of the total US 1992 commercial space sales), ranging from about $140M for the APSTARs to about $5M in components for the Dong Fang Hong 3. While the primary issue involved with these exports was China's compliance with the MTCR, this sale has also been read as a sop to China after the sale of F-16 military aircraft to Taiwan in early September (which in turn, was influenced by the sale of Russian fighters and bomber to China). I don't think this release of waivers was driven to be an offset to the fighter deal, but the timing was suspiciously fortuitous. As a last note, the determination that China is now following the MTCR and the issuance of these waivers, opens the door for China to bid and win launch contracts in the upcoming Intelsat VIIA launch contracts.] 2- CHINA COMMENCES APT SAT CO VENTURE [A follow-on note to the above message.] Just 5 days after receiving assurance the APT Satellite venture could proceed without restriction on technology transfer (see above), the People's Republic of China announced the formal start-up of the APT Satellite Company, Ltd. The venture plans to use two GEO satellites, APSTAR-1 and APSTAR-2, now being built by Hughes Space and Communications in the US, to provide communications over a footprint from Mongolia to Indonesia. The first satellite is planned to be launched by Long March in June 1994, with the second following about a year later. APT Sat Co Ltd will be headquartered in Hong Kong, and includes Thailand's Chia Tai group, China Telecommunications Broadcast Satellite Corp, China Yuan Wang Group Co, and Ever-Victory System Co Ltd (all three Chinese firms are owned by the Chinese government). Almost immediately, APT bought the existing Spacenet-1 satellite from GTE Spacenet Corp., located in McLean, Virginia. Spacenet 1 is already on orbit, located at 120 deg W., and was available as it was not currently in use by GTE Spacenet. [Commentary: Just a quick follow up on the previous article. This venture, while in the planning stage for some time, had been frozen until the issue of technology transfer had been resolved, and it looked like an export license would be granted for the U.S. satellite export for Long March launch. Now that appears settled, the venture is fully underway -- and APT has very quickly moved out to buy an existing satellite to start services. That quick purchase was a very shrewd move by APT, since they can immediately start signing up customers and providing services in the region. It is interesting to note the announcement was made by the Chinese Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications -- which underscores the involvement of the Chinese government. Regardless of satellite ownership, the potential demand for transponders over Asia is huge. China's PT&T estimates if the per- capita use of satellite communications climbs to the current US level, over 4,000 new satellite transponders would be needed. Some experts rate this estimate as low, since satellite transponders are a lower-cost option in regions (such as East Asia) which do not have large installed surface telecommunications base (as the US does), a factor which may boost the per-capita need for transponders. But this market will take some time to develop. Some Asian countries (such as Japan, South Korea, and Singapore) are pushing telecommunications infrastructure as a key part of national development, but other countries rate it as a much lower national priority. Arianespace in its most recent annual market forecast projected demand for only an additional 700-800 Asian satellite transponders by 2000.] 3- UKRAINE GOVERNMENT LOOKS FOR US SPACE INDUSTRIAL PARTNERS [This article is included as an example of some of the changes and potential impacts on commercial space activities from the breakup of the Soviet Union.] Over the week of 14 September Victor I. Antonov, the Ukrainian minister of defense conversion, met with several US firms to encourage their participation in Ukrainian business activities. Speaking at a press conference Antonov stated the Ukraine's economy has radically converted from a defense production oriented economy to a commercial production oriented economy. But he added, the conversion has caused a "deep economic crisis" and the Ukraine needs Western expertise to stabilize and turn around the economy. An an example of the change, Antonov said 160 B rubles had been spent annually on defense programs in the Ukraine (including the SS-18 and SS-24 ballistic missiles, aircraft carriers, ships, tanks, and other items). This amount is now 10 B rubles annually. Antonov spoke to several US firms, including Martin Marietta and McDonnell Douglas, looking for investment in commercial space businesses. While little information has been revealed from these discussions, commercial use of the Tsiklon/Zenit launch vehicle was discussed [Note: the Tsiklon/Zenit is produced in the Ukraine], and the potential offering joint booster services with a US firm to provide launch services was discussed to provide services "considerably cheaper" than going world launch rates. To encourage business investments in the Ukraine, their government is reportedly offering financial incentives including land leases for 99 years, tax-free status on joint manufacturing ventures for five years, on trade operations for 2 years, and on consulting operations for 3 years; and a long-term 30-50% reduction in taxes for ventures. [Commentary: I've reported in the last several issues of Commercial Space News on some of the opportunities for commercial space activities within and with ex-Soviet equipment. This is another feeler for use of such equipment and expertise. The Ukrainians are particularly concerned about the future of their manufacturing base and economic basis for competition with the Russians. They have found that most space, military, and high tech hardware is identified as "Russian" and little recognition is made of the ex-Soviet production base in the Ukraine -- which is not now receiving any funding from any source. As part of maintaining the ex-Soviet industrial base (the Ukraine provided 18% of the Soviet industrial output) the Ukrainian government would like to find a means to keep open some of their space production groups. This may be a hard sell but from the terms they have been willing to grant, they appear willing to make substantial deals. Of interest, the Ukrainians have apparently singled out McDonnell Douglas and Martin Marrieta as potential partners. Combining cheap Ukrainian labor, established space manufacturing facilities, and government tax breaks could provide a market advantage in the highly competitive launch business. While such a joint venture would be a hard sell to investors and has many questions yet unanswered, it certainly deserves a good, hard, rational look.] 4- VANDENBERG OPENING DOORS TO COMMERCIAL LAUNCHES Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, home to some of the US's most secret space launches, is opening its doors for commercial use. Last week, California state and county officials, as well as US Air Force officials, told members of the Aerospace States Association VAFB is now open for private users. State and county officials told the ASA how local and state government were eliminating burdensome regulations to improve the business conditions for commercial space firms in California, and how commercial launches from VAFB were being encouraged. USAF Brigader General Sebasitan Coglitore described the USAF as "bending over backwards" to accommodate private users at VAFB. [Commentary: I've run across several mentions of the commercial launch potential of VAFB. Up to now, there has been very little commercial operations at VAFB since most U.S. commercial satellites have been destined for GEO and launch from Kennedy Space Center in Florida. But declining budgets for government launches and a reduced military launch rate has driven down the level of launch activity at VAFB, and over the past several years commercial users have started to trickle into VAFB. OSC's initial test launches of its B-52/Pegasus combination were based in the Western Test Range around VAFB and Amroc has attempted a suborbital test launch of their hybrid rocket motor from VAFB. The potential for commercial use of VAFB has been increased by the great interest in LEO communications satellite constellations. These typically consist of small satellites launched into high inclination orbits, which are much better suited for VAFB launch. Vandenberg can currently accommodate Delta, Delta II, Titan II, Titan IV, Atlas, and Taurus launchers. Depending on which vehicles are selected to launch and maintain the LEO constellations, there could be a substantial amount of launch traffic through VAFB. It should be noted the Aerospace States Association is a little- known but fairly influential coordinating body for promoting industrial space activities. The ASA consists of representatives from about 30 US state governments and provides a conduit for establishing multi-state support of aerospace policies, regulations, and legislation. Typically industry and federal government representatives will also attend these coordination meetings. The ASA last met on 10-11 Sep at VAFB.] 5- ANOTHER BAN ON SATELLITE RECEIVERS PUT IN PLACE According to published reports, the Malaysian government has banned the installation of satellite receiving dishes in Malaysia. The new edict would require dishes which have been already installed to be dismantled. The rationale for this decision is provided by a Malaysian government report which notes that "Direct broadcasts would ... affect the morals and values practiced by Malaysians." [Commentary: The issue of cross-cultural influences and differing moral codes seems to getting involved with satellite television broadcasts, particularly now that private services are offering alternative broadcast programs to regions that used to be solely served by government-controlled broadcasting services. I've seen this issue come up from several national governments over the past couple of months. For example, India has approached UNESCO to formulate rules to control "proliferation of satellite television" so "the indigenous cultures of the less developed countries are not eroded by the proliferation of foreign satellite television programs" (Ajit Panja, Indian Minister of State for Information and Broadcasting, quoted by the Press Trust of India). Other countries have banned un-approved satellite receivers. These actions seem to be driven by the recent introduction of several new channels of broadcasting now available in Southern Asia -- initially begun by STAR-TV, a Hong Kong-based broadcaster. STAR- TV offers the US-based CNN, the BBC's World Service Television, a 24-hour western music and sports channel, and US serials and films over a broadcasting range from the Arabian Peninsula to South-East Asia. In countries which offer few "official" broadcasting services, a flourishing black market of private entrepreneurs offering small satellite dishes to those that can afford them has arisen. This black market is expected to get a boost now that an English company, Space & Scientific Ltd of Reading, England has begun selling a specially designed compact "Yagi" C-band antenna which can receive these STAR-TV signals. The "Yagi" antenna has been eagerly received in South-West Asia since the "Yagi" antenna is quite small, resembles a conventional TV antenna and is easier to install and less expensive than a conventional satellite dish. Several actions are being taken by regional governments in response to this "invasion" of new broadcasting services -- including stepped up enforcement activities against "pirate" receivers and proposed international regulations against satellite broadcast services. Probably the most constructive action is the Indian government is considering acquiring its own broadcasting transponders on Asiasat to compete with STAR-TV. Similarly, ASIANET, a New Delhi-based firm, may use a Russian EKRAN satellite transponder to beam competing signals in Indian languages. From a near-term historical perspective, similar objections to satellite broadcasts have been made by the Cubans, Soviets, French, and some South American countries over the past decade or so. In almost every case, the objections faded away as the country objecting gained the power to send their own satellite broadcasts in their own language and culture. For South Asia, I believe most of the objections will die down as similar capabilities come on line in the next several years. Based upon current launch and transponder lease contracts Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Pakistan, Malaysia, Iran, and India will all be operating satellite transponders within 3 years.] 6- AUSTRALIAN SPACE INDUSTRY MOVES FORWARD A couple of recent developments in the Australian space industry have been announced. The Australian government is now forming a single Australian Space Council to manage all public and private space activities in that country under a single umbrella. According to published reports, the main purpose of this Space Council will be to promote and guide space industries and services including mobile satellite communications, Earth observation from space, and the development of satellite-borne devices. [Commentary: The ASC seems to be the formation of an Australian equivalent to the US National Space Council -- which provides a single national channel to funnel all concerns about space activities into a single government forum. Up to now, Australian space investors and firms have had to deal with several different government organizations, most of which were not aware what the other government organizations were doing. Consolidation of government space activities and oversight into a single coordinated body should be helpful to the space industry in Australia.] The National Space Society of Australia is expected to announce the formation of the Australian Space Industry Chamber of Commerce. Beginning next summer, the executive director of the NSSA will be under a full time contract which includes spending 50% of his/her time managing the new Chamber of Commerce. This activity is being sponsored by NSSA in the hopes it will spawn an on-going broad-based foundation to speak for the space industry and space interest groups in Australia. [Commentary: In my opinion, this is an excellent move, and one which I would encourage the US National Space Society to duplicate. There is no US Space Industry Chamber of Commerce --there is the Aerospace Industries Association, the COMSTAC (Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Council) to the US Department of Transportation, the GPS Industry Association, local Space Business Roundtables, the US Space Foundation, and several special interest groups -- but no single group who speaks for the US space industry. Kirby Ikin, who has been intimately involved in thiscertainly deserves a large round of applause if this gets underway. (Conflict of interest warning - I know Kirby Ikin personally. But it's still a d*** good thing!)] 7- SOUTH AFRICA TESTS ROCKET MOTOR DESIGNED FOR COMMERCIAL VEHICLE On 12 October, a static test firing was completed of solid-fuel rocket engine near Hangklip, South Africa. This firing was proclaimed by the South African government as a step towards the development of a commercial launch vehicle. The test was the fourth for the rocket engine, but this was the first public announcement of its existence. The engine itself, derived from a South African military development program, was described as generating 50 kilo-tonnes of thrust over a burn duration of 50 seconds. The launch vehicle built around the engine was described as a notional two stage vehicle capable of delivering up to 500 kg to low Earth orbit. Somchem, part of the firm Denel Pty. Ltd., was described the as manufacturer. Denel Pty. Ltd. was one of the firms created when the South African Armscor weapons consortium was broken up last April. South African Public Enterprises Minister Dawie de Villiers was quoted in press reports as saying "There is already interest from international companies [with South Africa] to place low orbital satellites in space for commercial purposes" He would not reveal which companies are involved in the venture except to say, "Studies and investigations to this effect are still being done and negotiations are taking place." [Commentary: This is the first public announcement that South Africa may be interested in getting into the commercial launch business. As an aside, doesn't it seem like everyone is, these days? Brazil, Argentina, Israel, India, Japan, Ukraine, Russia, US, Australia, China, several groups in Europe, etc. etc. The potentially sticky political issue of missile proliferation and launcher technology should also be noted here. South Africa has been reported to be also developing some intermediate range ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons -- with some recent trade press reports substantially increasing the South African stockpile of weapons-grade material. This engine has a potential dual use in a military IRBM, and any launch vehicle technology may also be seen as applicable to military missiles as well. Shipment of missile technology to South Africa is banned under the MTCR, and so participation or help to their missile program is prohibited under the terms of the MTCR. But participating in a commercial launch is more problematic. Export of a small commercial satellite to South Africa for launch on an indigenously developed launch system might be allowed -- if other tech transfer regulations were followed. This question will have to be resolved before South Africa can expect to address any of the profitable and growing northern hemisphere satellite markets.] 8- TIME TO START TOWARDS A COMMERCIAL GPS -- Commentary [Commentary -- I'm making this whole section a commentary, since after writing it, I found it read more like an editorial than a news piece.] [GPS is now rapidly moving to provide a 24-hour GPS capability. With recent launches to beef up the existing GPS constellation, users can now expect rapid and accurate positioning data within the restrictions of the Selected Availability (SA) signal encoding, which degrades signal accuracy to about 100 meters. Within local regions of a few hundred kilometers, however, differential GPS techniques have been developed to provide commercial satellite positioning systems to about 15 cm precision. Now the US has offered to provide GPS as a component of a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) available to any worldwide user to a minimum of 10 years, on a continuous, worldwide basis with no direct user charges, beginning in 1993. This formal US government offer was made to the 10th Air Navigation Conference in Montreal, Canada in September, and has been confirmed in later official documents offering this service from the US government. Meanwhile, commercial and private users continue to develop new systems to use GPS and GPS signals, and the number of installed satellite navigation systems continues to grow exponentially. By the end of this year, the FAA hopes to open thousands of airports to small general aviation aircraft equipped with GPS receivers for non- precision approaches. An estimated 5000 US private aircraft already have GPS receivers, although FAA approval of GPS as a supplemental navaid is still pending. The US Coast Guard is also installing differential GPS stations along all US coastlines for increased precision in ship navigation, with commercial GPS receivers now being sold in marine hardware stores. Overseas, Japanese firms are now installing over 5,000 GPS receivers per month in automobiles as position-locating devices. Pocket sized GPS receivers are now widely available for about $1000. However, in the FY93 US Department of Defense budget, the US Congress removed the funding for 2 new GPS satellites, planned to be used towards completing and maintaining the orbital constellation - citing slower than expected US DoD installation of GPS user equipment. The Congress stated "the military services have budgeted only enough funds to buy receivers for a fraction of their forces over the next 5 years. In fact, the Army, Navy, and Air Force will not complete planned GPS receiver procurement until about 2006." This Congressional restriction on the buy of GPS satellites, by itself, does not delay the plans to provide GPS capability, nor does it threaten the commercial market. But it does fuel doubts in the user community about the future availability of this system upon which depends a very rapidly growing sector of commercial space activities. As U.S. defense funds shrink, concepts for a transition of GPS or GPS-like services to purely a commercial or quasi- commercial basis must be explored. Several concepts have been floated for discussion within the US and through several international agencies. In particular, the US Air Force, the GPS program manager, has been very willing to discuss new concepts for the GPS, including civil-funded modifications to the next generation of the GPS satellites (Block IIR) and expanded commercial participation in the program planning. European and Russian navigation system planners have also been very supportive of the goal of eventually joining into a global time and position utility service. But the key mechanism to support a future commercial satellite navigation constellation is still lacking -- a practical method of generating, collecting, and transferring revenues through an organization charged with providing global or regional satellite- based navigation signals. While methods have been suggested, there have been very little actions to start the process of establishing such a mechanism -- which by definition, must involve international, commercial participation. I believe it is now time to add this to the pro-commercial space agenda. The free usage of GPS services provided by the US will end in 10 years. The installed market of satellite navigation systems and related application systems has grown to the point it is now a multi-hundred million dollar annual business, growing at a double digit annual rate. Activities must start now on the political and regulatory front to ensure a commercially-viable satellite navigation system is available after the turn of the century.] FINAL NOTES Whew -- got this issue out without getting too far behind in my files. I'm trying to weed out a lot more data early on in the process of putting these columns together, so I don't get overwhelmed with data. Hopefully, you folks find this stuff useful and interesting -- Any and all comments are welcome. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Wales Larrison Space Technology Investor "Tacent, satis laudant" P.O. Box 2452 Seal Beach, CA 90740-1452 ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 18 Oct 1992 01:06:43 GMT From: Henry Spencer Subject: Commercial Space News #17 Newsgroups: sci.space In article Wales.Larrison@ofa123.fidonet.org writes: > But the key mechanism to support a future commercial satellite >navigation constellation is still lacking -- a practical method of >generating, collecting, and transferring revenues... Alas for Geostar, which had this built into its basic concept... Now and then I wonder if it would have succeeded had Gerry O'Neill not come down with leukemia and the US government not offered GPS as free (that is, government-subsidized) competition. (The key feature of Geostar was that the actual position determination was done in a central computer using satellite-made measurements. The Geostar client box was basically just a digital radio that was also capable of putting out a high-power pulse for the measurements. So the central computer could check your account status before sending you your position. No payment, no position.) -- MS-DOS is the OS/360 of the 1980s. | Henry Spencer @ U of Toronto Zoology -Hal W. Hardenbergh (1985)| henry@zoo.toronto.edu utzoo!henry ------------------------------ Date: 18 Oct 92 02:24:59 GMT From: John Flanagan Subject: motions of astronouts Newsgroups: sci.physics,sci.space,sci.space.shuttle In article dproctor@lspd.jsc.nasa.gov (david r. proctor) writes: >In article <92286.151341A10630@TRMETU.BITNET>, enis tuncer > wrote: >> 2. Astronouts don't use their balance systems, what kinds of >>problems do they have when they came to earth? > >2. One of the reasons that balance is affected is because there is a change >in the vestibular system of the crewman. [...] Sounds similar to, but more severe than, what happens to people when they spend time on a ship -- and when they get back onto land. --John -- John Flanagan ||"Pretty boys johnf@uhheph.phys.hawaii.edu || with the sunshine faces U. of Hawaii, Dept. of Physics & Astro.|| ..." 2505 Correa Rd., Honolulu, HI 96822 || -- My Bloody Valentine ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 18 Oct 92 00:16 GMT From: Karl Dishaw <0004244402@mcimail.com> Subject: Perot and Freedom {>One of his proposed cuts included "specific expenses." In the fine >print beside this slice of pie, it said...."Space Station"... mercy killing. ------------------------------ Date: 17 Oct 92 23:12:54 GMT From: jwty@vax5.cit.cornell.edu Subject: Pres Debate & military spending Newsgroups: sci.space Saw something in the vice-presidential debate a few days ago that warmed my heart. Quayle, while discussing what to do with the defence industry in this era of post-cold-war cutbacks, specifically mentioned building up the space program as a partial solution. Which could be just the ticket for boosting our exploration effort. Too bad he's so far behind in the polls... Chris Koresko koresko@astrosun.tn.cornell.edu ------------------------------ End of Space Digest Volume 15 : Issue 324 ------------------------------