========================================================================= (C) 1994 by Atari Corporation, GEnie, and the Atari Roundtables. May be reprinted only with this notice intact. The Atari Roundtables on GEnie are *official* information services of Atari Corporation. To sign up for GEnie service, call (with modem) 800-638-8369. Upon connection type HHH (RETURN after that). Wait for the U#= prompt.Type XTX99437,GENIE and press [RETURN]. The system will prompt you for your information. ========================================================================== Category 14, Topic 44 Message 1 Thu Dec 23, 1993 K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 23:47 EST Any and all, How many shares make a good amount of shares? I'm picking up a few hundred shares here and there but I'm a looooong way from 10,000 or even 1,000. Just wondering if buying constantly is a good idea until _I_ feel I have enough or if there was a way of telling how many shares I should have at x price. I understand the discussion here and some of what _I'm_ thinking even jibe with what's said here. I just don't want to get "the big head" and run headlong into the market without a "knowledge" helmet!! :) Still Sailing, Sir Fransis ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 2 Fri Dec 24, 1993 M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 00:36 EST Sandy, I'm with you, I'm not selling either! Matt ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 3 Fri Dec 24, 1993 M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 01:02 EST Sir Fransis - As for how many shares make a 'good amount of shares' at x price.. I will stick with my own criteria.... Don't invest more $ than you can afford to lose, should all go awry! I love taking profits, but I loath loosing money. Makes me feel I should have just taken the dollars and thrown them out the window of my car! How many shares I hold, is a combo of what I can afford to invest, what I set as a potential goal for profits, and what I can afford to lose. Following this type of structure has kept me from falling into the trap I have seen many others succumb to. That of holding too much, and loosing a bundle. I've been what some call rich, and I've been (as I am now) getting-by. Rich is absolutely a nicer place to be, but love of my sanity keeps me from going too far out on the financial limb to get me there. Good luck in finding _your_ level of investment, Matt ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 4 Fri Dec 24, 1993 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 03:24 EST ATC spent much of Thursday above the downtrend line which has defined its action since the November 4 peak. It also closed above that line. All would point to a bright future, except that the volume was nothing to cheer about. Accordingly, I believe one has to be considering the possibility that a legitimate change of trend may be occuring, but is not yet clearly defined. Perhaps next week will tell the story. Evidently, not very many short positions were abandoned today. It may require another point or so higher to trigger a cascade. Otherwise, it may just mean a continuing, but slightly less steep, down trend for a while longer. Scott - I think your call option strategy for bottom fishing is interesting. I tried to do something like it during the day. However, I did not get a return call, so I presume my buy order was not filled. But it did not run away, and I'll be able to try again next week. Happy holiday all! --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 5 Fri Dec 24, 1993 K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 22:28 EST Matt, Thanks for the judgement lesson. Now I see that waiting too long to take your profits is just as bad as not buying in the first place. Now I've got a set amount of profit that I want to make off of ATC. I may place one more buy Mon or Tue at 6 for 100 shares (they closed at 6.5) then I can wait. Hey, if I make double my money, I can just sell half and let the rest ride! I can't wait for the CES reports (would have been going to CES myself but couldn't get a room in time. It's times like now when you wish you knew people everywhere!! Still Sailing, Sir Fransis ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 6 Sun Dec 26, 1993 K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 03:07 EST Here's another question from one of the uninformed. Exactly what are the tax drawbacks of owning stock? For example, right now, I file form 1040EZ. Will owning stock make me have to file a different form. Will I pay more or less taxes? Am I worrying too much? Still Stockholding, Sir Fransis ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 7 Sun Dec 26, 1993 B.STOREY [Billy B.] at 09:55 EST Sir F., yes, you will need new tax forms filled out to claim your capital gains (or losses ), but if you are claiming gains, you will already have put 35% of it into a tax fund, haven't you? Billy B. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 8 Sun Dec 26, 1993 K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 12:40 EST Uhhh, tax fund? I really, really didn't know this. I _know_ I've got a big profit coming up :) so what is a tax fund and how do I get my money there (Is IDS a tax fund?). Let me set my tiny brain to the task... I will need different tax forms and my gains or losses will be based on the price of Atari stock on December 31st. I'm pretty sure that my gains by that time won't be a lot but do I still need to do some financial juggling? Still Sailing, Sir Fransis ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 9 Sun Dec 26, 1993 ICDINC at 14:19 EST Sir, I am no tax expert but I don't think you have any gains or loss until the day of reckoning (you sell). Atari doesn't pay dividends so there is no tax liability there. YOu might open an IRA account if you are really concerned. - TOM - ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 10 Sun Dec 26, 1993 V.VALENTI at 16:53 EST I live here in Las Vegas, so I'll be going to CES. I'll let you know what is going on. Vince ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 11 Mon Dec 27, 1993 B.STOREY [Billy B.] at 09:16 EST I keep a separate account in the bank that I put 35% of any profit into. Comes tax time, I have the money there to pay. I call that my "Tax Fund." I believe that there is no need to figure any gain or loss until you close your position. At the time you close (sell your stock), is when the tax man sticks his hand out. For more detailed information, consult your tax accountant. Billy B. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 12 Mon Dec 27, 1993 SLP [Scott] at 20:45 EST Shhh! Don't give Hillary any ideas for a new tax (after all, people should take any profits they may have each year so they will have cash to spur on the economy, right?). You only pay taxes after you have a profit, which is when you sell the stock. It used to be on the settlement date, but I think that starting this year it is on the transaction date. Scott ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 13 Tue Dec 28, 1993 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 16:04 EST Sir, The advice you are getting here is quite correct. I'll add only that the forms you will need IF you actually realize a gain or loss by selling, are Form 1040 instead of 1040EZ, and Schedule D to list your gains and losses. Schedule B is used for interest and dividends. These are 2 schedules which are attached to Form 1040. These documents and instructions, are usually available at commercial banks and public libraries, sometimes the post office. Otherwise, call your local IRS. Billy B's "tax fund" is his own personal way of anticipating his tax payment. It is not required, although it may be a good idea as a discipline. If you anticipate having taxes to pay which are, in total, a substantial increase over your past taxes, you may want to look into filing an 'estimated tax' form with an estimated tax payment. The estimated tax is used to spread your tax payments through the year if your regular with-holding taxes are not likely to approximate the full year's tax. It often comes into play if you do things like stock trading and/or investing in mutual funds which pay capital gains and interest dividends. It is normally paid in quarterly instalments during the year, but if you have an unexpected change in your tax status, you can file even one estimated payment in January. It may avoid some penalties and interest. But this, and the rest, is something you should ask an accountant or the IRS about. A lot depends on the numbers involved. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 14 Tue Dec 28, 1993 M.LIPSON [MikeL] at 23:02 EST Will ATC fall to 5 or less? I certainly don't think it will fall to Commodore's current price of 3.25. The WSJ foresees Sega & Nintendo capturing around 95% of the US market in 1994, with the qualifier that Atari could upset the applecart and gain a larger slice of the market share than the so-called "mavens" project. I've played (and my son has played) Cybermorph and Crescent Galaxy. Their graphics are regretfully comparable to the Sega/Nintendo 16-bitters. If the other forthcoming Jaguar games fit the same mold, woe is Atari. At this point in time, ATC's fate is in the hands of the software developers. Of course, if things go really sour, perhaps one of the major players could make a tender offer for control of ATC. I sincerely hope that the new games clearly separate Jaguar from the rest of the videogame machine pack. P.S.: We're picking up Raiden tomorrow, and hoping for the best. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 15 Wed Dec 29, 1993 REALM [Joey] at 06:29 EST MikeL, I think you need to play more.:-) Even the first two games do things impossible on the others like realtime texture mapped rocks with light sources. I especially like the 3D Eroded dish around the Green Boss's head. Have you made it into the caves or anything yet in CG? I could tell the difference in quality right off... sure your not playing on a B&W TV or something?:-) Cybermorph does lack in the graphic department but it's speed in manipulating shaded 3D objects isn't too bad. Besides it's become one of my favorite games, took a couple days but I'm getting the hang of it now, it's a lot better once you start using strategy. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 16 Wed Dec 29, 1993 M.LIPSON [MikeL] at 08:03 EST Joey-- Just after I posted the message you replied to, my son told me he was into Cybermorph for a few hours and that he really like it. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 17 Wed Dec 29, 1993 J.HICKEY6 at 09:26 EST Some people "sell" to open and "buy" to close.(short sales of stock, put and call writing, naked or covered) ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 18 Wed Dec 29, 1993 TQUINN [Terry~Sysop] at 11:37 EST The first 200 messages in this topic have been archived and are available in Library 13 as file # 31280 (STOCK_10.ARC). This archive covers the period between November 25 1993 and December 29, 1993. Terry Quinn ST RT Sysop and BBS Janitor ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 19 Wed Dec 29, 1993 D.ENGEL [Thunderbird] at 18:20 EST Anyone who thinks that Cybermorph and Crescent Galaxy "Look like Sega and Nintendo 16 bit games": a) Has never seen Cybermorph and/or Crescent Galaxy. b) Has Never seen Sega and Nintendo 16 bit games. c) Owns large amounts of stock in Sega and Nintendo. d) All of the above. Even the intro screen for Cybermorph is beyond the capabilities of any 16 bit game. The game itself is incredibly impressive if you compare it to it's contemporaries like SNES "Starfox" and Sega "Stellar Fire". Both of which lack lightsource shading, gouraud shading, and have worse frame rates than mid 80's japanese cartoons. Crescent Galaxy is not my 'type' of game, but even so the gorgeous graphics are simply _not possible_ with the limited colors available on those old machines. I demonstrated my Jaguar to my co-workers and they were awestruck. One guy told me that he planned on returning the Sega genesis he bought for christmas. ____________________ \hunderbird ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 20 Thu Dec 30, 1993 PG.MUSIC [PG-Kevin] at 01:43 EST Anyone notice that the 'sunlight' reflects off your ship as you turn in CyberMorph? :) --Kevin ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 21 Thu Dec 30, 1993 R.JONES82 [Bob Jones] at 02:19 EST I don't agree that Cybermorph is comparable to SNES or Sega games. I played Starfox for the SNES and while it is impressive for a 16 bit system it is no where near as smooth or fast as Cybermorph. My nephew played Cybermorph (He owns Starfox) and said it is much better than Starfox. If Ataris worst game outshines SNES's best game good things are in store for Atari and ATC Stockholders. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 22 Thu Dec 30, 1993 REALM [Joey] at 02:53 EST MikeL, Told you!:-) ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 23 Thu Dec 30, 1993 K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 03:56 EST I held off buying at 6 (glad I did!) Since the stock's cheaper now, I can afford to put more in. I'll probably place a buy at 5. If it gets down that far, I _hope_ it would only be temporary. If it doesn't, I personally own enough stock for my needs (speculation!). I just feel that 5 would be a bargain with doubling price well within range. WCES draws closer!!! Finally got the chance to buy a Jag. Mine was a wonder story, just as I was returning to a local vid rental store, I saw someone buying one. I just _knew_ this was the last one, but since I'm friendly with the guys, I asked,"Where's mine?" "What?" "My Jag." "Oh, we've got one more in the back." "..." Then I said,"I'll be right back." Let me add that both my investments (the Jag and the stock) were sound!! Finally Reached Port and Sailing for new Seas, Sir Fransis ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 24 Thu Dec 30, 1993 STEVE-J [DrHfuhruhurr] at 05:23 EST REALM - All the graphics in CRESCENT GALAXY (the texture-mapped asteroids, etc.) are all pre-calculated. The only thing really being done on-the-fly is deJagPEGing the 24-bit background. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 25 Thu Dec 30, 1993 M.LIPSON [MikeL] at 08:58 EST My son's now addicted to Cybermorph. He's changed his mind about the game. He says it's much better than Starfox. What I (emphasis on the "I") say about the games has less validity than what my 16 year-old says. After all, he and his friends live and breathe all sorts of videogames. As for the stock? I'm watching it closely and might jump back in. Logic based on fundamentals dictate a rise, but there seems to be no logic with ATC's price swings. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 26 Thu Dec 30, 1993 BRIAN.H [ST~SysOp] at 12:57 EST Just to let anyone know, we do have topics in the Jag Cat for these games. ~~Brian..Written on Thursday 30 December 1993 at 01:53 p.m. ADT ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 27 Thu Dec 30, 1993 D.ENGEL [Thunderbird] at 22:54 EST PG.MUSIC: The 'Sunlight' in Cybermorph illuminates _All_ the objects in the game appropriately. No Nintendo or Sega 16 bit game has a prayer of reproducing these realistic shading effects. Not only do they lack the CPU horsepower, they just don't have enough shades of color to do it with (Nintendo = 256, Sega = 64). I can't believe that anyone would compare the Jaguar games to Nintendo/Sega games of the same type. ____________________ \hunderbird ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 28 Fri Dec 31, 1993 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 01:03 EST ATC may have reached some strong support at 5 1/2. Yesterday, I noticed a block of 200,000 shares on the tape at 5 5/8, just what might be expected as major short sellers decide the time has come to take their profits -- just like many of us longies did at 12+ in those heady days of early November - - didn't we? ;-) Moreover, the chart shows a classical support level at 5 1/2, which was the point of previously strong resistance for several months last spring and summer as the stock was working its way out of the ashes. Once penetrated, a line of stong resistance (support) often changes roles to support (resistance). That may be the case here. The next week or so should determine if it is happening here. If it breaks down through 5 1/2, the next support seems to be around 4, which was another important stopping off level on the way up. The chart of ATC through today, December 30, is included in the picture file with the upcoming GEnieLamp.ST. The suggested support line at 5 1/2 is clearly indicated. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 29 Fri Dec 31, 1993 REALM [Joey] at 03:23 EST Steve-J, How do you know that? ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 30 Fri Dec 31, 1993 STEVE-J [DrHfuhruhurr] at 16:20 EST REALM - See the CG topic! ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 31 Fri Dec 31, 1993 M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 19:17 EST Thanks Sandy, Your running commentary is as helpful as ever! (and yes, some of us _did_ do some profit taking at 12+... Yippie!) Keep up the good work, and Happy New Year! Matt ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 32 Fri Dec 31, 1993 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 22:53 EST Best wishes to all here, and may we all prosper with ATC in '94. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 33 Sat Jan 01, 1994 PG.MUSIC [PG-Kevin] at 02:11 EST Happy New Year fellow ATC stockholders! May the Jag continue to do well. --Kevin ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 34 Mon Jan 03, 1994 ICDINC at 11:33 EST All, I have been studying Point & Figure stock charting the last few days and applied it last night to ATC since 1/1/89. I don't want to alarm anybody but a P&F chart using .5 point movement and 3s reversal showed ATC as a classical example. Using Horizontal Baseline trend prediction methods, it shows that ATC should bottom around 3.5 before a turn in the trend. This method predicted the previous top at 12 and the bottom before that at 1.5. The top before that was predicted at 13.5. This method was too accurate for comfort but I am still holding a good chunk of stock that I bought above that level. This method of P&F charting was not as accurate on my other stock holdings. I sure hope that strong Bullish fundamentals come to play and prove my charting wrong. - TOM - ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 35 Mon Jan 03, 1994 M.LIPSON [MikeL] at 22:35 EST At around the time I sold my ATC in November, I put my Keough money into Vanguard's gold & precious metals fund (VGPMX) and have not been disappointed, to say the least. I'm now discovering that gold is almost as volatile as ATC. (BTW, my ATC was not in my Keough :( ) The ATC went to taxes and my wife's kitchen. When I asked my stockbroker about setting up a Keough where I have control over the stock investments, he said he didn't want to be involved in any way, shape or form if he had any inkling that I'd be dabbling with ATC as part of the Keough portfolio. Only blue chips, he said. No sooner did we have that conversation than the Dorf Man struck, and ATC (as Dizzy Dean would say) slud from 9 1/4 to its current price of 5 3/4. Anyhow, after digesting Granville 's (and other Granvillites), I've come to the realization that the U.S. stock market is NOT the place to be at this time. Maybe in another six months, but not now. I'm also staying away from Latin America, despite NAFTA (because stang e things happen down there from time to time). I'm currently looking into international growth portfolios with several of the funds. It's a pity that ATC is undergoing a major, positive metamorphosis at a time when the rest of the stock market is at its precipice. But I still check on ATC several times a day, and avidly read every blurb about it on a regular basis. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 36 Mon Jan 03, 1994 M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 23:06 EST Tom - Thanks for the info re: the P&F charting. Always nice to have a new way to look at things! I agree, from what you say that it seems eerie... maybe a bit too close for comfort. It _is_ somewhat comforting that the method was not so accurate with your other holdings. As I've posted before, I've already taken some profits from my ATC holdings so I'm just 'a-sittin and 'a-watchin' with my remaining shares. I can almost tell what it feels like to be a big player, as I won't get hurt even if the bottom falls out altogether! (Of course, we hope it doesn't though) Things are so slow now, it's almost getting boring! Thanks again, Matt ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 37 Tue Jan 04, 1994 REALM [Joey] at 03:11 EST I sold some of mine at 7 and it's just sitting there waiting for 3.5!:-) I was hoping to double my shares with the same amount of Atari's money then hang out for a year or two longer and see what happens. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 38 Tue Jan 04, 1994 W.FAANES at 21:31 EST What is this Q Sound company that announced today that it is licensing its advanced 'sound' technology to ATC.? The company is based in Canada. A lso, Atari announced a SF firm to handle U.S. advertising.... Anyone else see this on the wires? ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 39 Tue Jan 04, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 21:42 EST Atari has been busy in 2 directions: 1) It has made arrangements for national advertising with a professional agency. 2) It has signed a royalty based agreement with QSound to use it's Virtual Audio algorithm which "is a form of "electronic ventriloquism" that allows the listener to hear sounds emanating from locations beyond the speakers." According to Sam T., "This agreement will provide consumers, early in 1994, with the world's first implementation of QSound's revolutionary sound placement technology in an interactive home video game platform." ATC stock made a nice move up to 6 3/8 this morning on high volume. It then dropped back to close at 6--. The chart shows an interesting asymptotic approach to the support line at 5 3/8, and today a nice bounce off the line. Could be establishing a new base for renewed advance. BTW, the chart is available in the picture file with GEnieLamp ST. Files 31383, 31385. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 40 Tue Jan 04, 1994 PG.MUSIC [PG-Kevin] at 22:59 EST W.FAANES, Yup. I saw the QSound part. --Kevin ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 41 Wed Jan 05, 1994 STEVE-J [DrHfuhruhurr] at 05:17 EST QSound??? COOL!!! I've heard some demonstrations of it and it IS impressive (though sometimes you REALLY have to pay attention to it to get some of the nuances). ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 42 Wed Jan 05, 1994 AEO.MAG [Nat'l Champs] at 14:39 EST The only media in which I've experienced QSound was on Madonna's greatest hits CD. I couldn't tell the diff... maybe Madonna isn't 3D enough? :) --Travis ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 43 Wed Jan 05, 1994 A.FASOLDT [Al Fasoldt] at 18:08 EST Travis, When QSound came out, I reviewed it and found it fascinating. In a double- blind test, QSound did, indeed, create images and effects far beyond the edges of the normal sound field, and in some situations this enlarged sonic spread extended BEHIND the listener. Al ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 44 Wed Jan 05, 1994 K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 22:34 EST AEO.MAG, I've had extensive experience with QSound games on SegaCD. Very impressive. I thought you'd need expensive speakers but my bargain basement amplifier produced the 3D effect well. If you can rent SegaCD's near you, get Ecco and Sonic CD. DO NOT PLAY TRACK ONE OR TWO. All of the others, though, are QSound encoded. One drawback with Sega, though, is that only the background music has been in QSound. It seems like this agreement gives ATC rights to program their DSP to interactively create and output QSound. I like it! Still Sailing, Sir Fransis ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 45 Thu Jan 06, 1994 NOCTURNAL at 01:25 EST Does anybody forsee a big jump up in ATC when the Jag goes national (Supposally at the end of Jan)? Or just a little pop up? And if the 3do has a better showing than the jag at the ces would that hurt atc? ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 46 Thu Jan 06, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 03:08 EST Looks like 3DO is still scoring points. Now they have Sanyo developing a 3DO compatible, 32 bit, machine which will be "cheaper than" the Panasonic unit. It is scheduled to go on sale in the U.S. next August. A Wall Street analyst thinks it is significant that Sanyo chose the 3DO "standard" rather than any other. Jaguar now has the opportunity at WCES to go eye ball to eye ball with 3CDO. Atari got in a jab with the QSound announcement; 3DO has now landed 2 blows, one being a new joint set up for software development, and now the Sanyo development. So far, I score 3DO ahead on points. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 47 Thu Jan 06, 1994 R.WATSON15 [Wayne Watson] at 04:14 EST QSound sounds like it does something similiar to my Sonic Hologram. It will take a stereo signal and expand it way out. If set up right, the sound will sound like it is coming from behind you. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 48 Thu Jan 06, 1994 STEVE-J [DrHfuhruhurr] at 04:48 EST S.WOLF4 - Everyone knew about the Sanyo (and upcoming AT&T unit) 3DO system for almost a year now. However, CNBC credited 3DO's 3 point gain today to Sanyo displaying their unit at CES. It's still questionable whether they will agressively market it. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 49 Thu Jan 06, 1994 REALM [Joey] at 04:52 EST Sandy, Don't forget the Chipset! The Jaguar is just one item. I think everyone seems to base Atari's stock on the Jaguar and how it competes against 3DO. What I would like to see as an anouncement that IBM has adopted Atari's chipset for video cards or their next generation computer. I think Atari Games is also considering it for Arcade systems. Something like that seems like it would have more of an impact then the Jags sale figures. Now you just have to figure out when something like that will appear and buy stock just before.:-) I'd also like to hope they're working on a way to add a TOS front end. Better yet dump TOS and create something better using the Jags custom chips. Maybe create a TOS emulator as an add on. If you can add an IBM card to the Falcon for $250 why not a TOS card to the new line of Atari super computers. You might have a hard time getting IBM to manufacture those.:-) ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 50 Thu Jan 06, 1994 ARCHIVIST [Charlie] at 15:17 EST Hehe. Sandy, it sounds like this Wall Street analyst doesn't realise that 3DO is the only 'standard' that can be indipendantly manufactured and sold. :-) Sanyo couldn't start making Jaguar machines if they wanted to. Charlie/sysop ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 51 Thu Jan 06, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 16:51 EST You guys are probably all correct. This analyst does not try to be up on the fundamental reasons behind ATC moves. When I read something that seems like it might be relevant to the market evaluation of ATC, I report it here because I think you guys might find it interesting and be able to provide some educated (?) background. I can not judge the broader meaning. I only read the chart, and all these things are included therein. I would add only that much of what you guys say is pure guesswork. Does anyone here really know what is going on with IBM, for example. I don't, although I might wish. Anyway, it makes for interesting talk around the water cooler. :-)> Charlie - - Are you saying that if Sanyo decided that Jaguar technology is the road to the future, they could not possibly work a deal with Atari for license to put out a compatible system? I don't see it that way, but that's a matter of business judgement and I only read tea leaves. BTW, Charlie~Sysop, if I want to post some pics of the Atari chart from time to time, so that I can make clearer what I am talking about, which Library do you suggest I use. Usually I include the latest chart with the GEnieLamp, but in between issues I may want to put up a picture -- like now! --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 52 Thu Jan 06, 1994 ARCHIVIST [Charlie] at 18:11 EST Well... Sandy, lets say I can't see any good reason for Atari to sell Sanyo a license to market a competitive game system based on the Jaguar Chipset. What would it benifit Atari? They've got good manufacturing and distribution in the IBM plant already so why should they share the pie? This is different from 3DO which does not actually make their own machines and only licenses the technology. Sanyo is not direct competition for 3DO (though they are for Panasonic, and I wonder what they think of this deal); they are in the rolConsol is potentially one of the most lucrative markets for this decade. Lets face it, if the Jould well be a Billion Dollar product. I can't think of anything except anti-trust laws to coerce the Tramiels into sharing it. (Please note, I'm not at all familiar with your anti-trust laws so I really don't know if they apply. That was just off the top of my head.) As to where to place more of your charts, I'd say either library 5 or 6. #5 is Graphics and Art and #6 is Business programs, Databases, etc. Don't worry about it, though. I or the other librarians would move the file into the most appropriate area after you upload it. They'll be more than welcome, of course. ;-) Charlie/sysop ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 53 Thu Jan 06, 1994 DARLAH [RT~SYSOP] at 20:34 EST Looks like Atari stock is back on the rise... ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 54 Thu Jan 06, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 22:52 EST Charlie~Sysop - - Your reasoning is understandable. It is often hard to see how sharing knowledge, even with royalty arrangements, can benefit the originator. Yet there are countless examples of how this is short sighted. I'm not that much into Atari's mind, but I would think that it is to their benefit to see Jaguar technology spread around the world as rapidly as possible. They can't do it, IBM and Time Warner notwithstanding. Better they should license some others to get in on the business, and, as they say, "a smaller share of a larger pie can be more than the entire small pie". I think this is appropriate here. Then there is software. It seems much more likely that software developers will be more prolific, if they could see a Sanyo making Jaguars and selling them all over Asia, and an Elron making Jaguars and selling them all over the Mid-east and Africa. Maybe Atari/IBM can satisfy the European and Western Hemisphere market; but I don't think they can handle even this share of the world if Jaguar catches on. Do you believe that Jaguar would fail to catch on if it were available and with lots of software? Why cede the world to Panasonic, Sanyo et al with their versions of the 3DO? Let someone else get a piece of the Jaguar pie, someone who knows how to market these things, and Atari will come out ahead, way ahead! --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 55 Thu Jan 06, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 22:53 EST ATC opened with a 1/4 point "break out" gap at 6 3/8, then closed at 7 1/4 on volume approaching 900,000 shares. It made a final move up from 6 7/8 to 7 1/4 on ~150,000 shares in the last 1/2 hour. This strikes me as the short sellers beginning to exit. If this is what is going on, then better is yet to come. Might be just a cyclical bounce, somewhat like the move from 7 -> 10 in November. We'll have to see what develops. If it makes 8 on Friday -- I can even take Monday -- then there is a fascinating analysis which projects out to 30 this summer. I don't believe it, but it is at least amusing. I'll post it if the 8 comes about. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 56 Fri Jan 07, 1994 T.LIPSKY at 00:03 EST Sandy, sounds like you work for a brokerage firm, or at least have a Quotron in front of you, I myself work for a "Major" brokerage house, and I find nothing more fun than placing ATC on my board and watching it move all day.... see ya, Tim :-) ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 57 Fri Jan 07, 1994 M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 01:46 EST Sandy - Gee, I don't know... that '30' is starting to look pretty good to me! I'm watching for the 8, but if it starts to soar upward again, even if in smaller bounds than way back when, I'll be ready for another trip to City Island! What say? By the way, in principle I agree with your post re: Ataris' cutting a deal with some other manufacturer to allow them to 'get in on' the Jaguar pie, but I see some rubs. First, if the thing takes off as we all hope and suspect it will, they would be giving up quite a piece of change. Being a big fish in a small pond is nice. Being a big fish in a BIG pond is nicer... and nicer still if you OWN the pond, even for a short time. Provided, of course, that you have provided for the time a bigger fish comes along, or the pond dries up some, or what have you! A Jaguar produced by someone else, sold under another name.... why not get the real thing, and have Atari take full profits rather than percentage points? Second, I wonder if there is anything in the contracts with Big Blue that would preclude their entering such a deal with someone else? If they are meeting all production and QA goals, they might not take to kindly to another plant starting production. Of course, the bottom line is, I don't think Atari thinks that way. Marketing (and to a degree, merchandising) has never seemed to be their strong point. I'll admit, the job they've done so far wiht the Jag is looking good, but in this case I'll have to borrow a line from the Missourians... "Show me!" Take care, Matt ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 58 Fri Jan 07, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 02:40 EST Tim - - That's very interesting. I was once offered a job in research at a major brokerage firm, but I felt too much depended on my being able to sell stock to large accounts based on my research, and I didn't feel comfortable about it. I once had a ticker tape at home -- no delay -- and did a lot of short term trading. Took too much time and effort for the returns, so I gave it up -- that was just before the era of these at home computers, and I did all my research and analysis "by hand". I just happened to call up for a quote about 3:30 this afternoon. I usually get quotes a few times a day. I'm certainly not a professional; just your basic dilettante. If Atari gets up to 30 this year, maybe I will get that Quotron. The first small step is up to 8 on Friday, hey that's today. If it comes, then I can make a projection to 30! ;-) Good night. --Sandy PS: I don't know if you can post here during the day, but if you can, please put up the more exciting happenings with ATC. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 59 Fri Jan 07, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 03:32 EST Matt - - A good argument, but ... Supposing company "Fabricas Argentinas" comes along and says it wants to make a "game machine" based on Jaguar 64 bit technology. Doesn't want to include a lot of the bells and whistles, stereo sound, CD, etc. that the full scale Jaguar uses, but wants to limit it to only cartridge games with the full color graphics, speed, and interactive control. Wants to make it and sell it only in South America at a price of US$ 129.95. They might be able to sell 1 million such devices the 1st year and 3 million the 2nd year. After that, maybe they would bring on the full scale Jaguar. Not only would Atari get royalties, but look at the market for cartridge games which would open up in a part of the world Atari/IBM would not get to this century probably. And later, the full scale Jaguar games. What an incentive for software developers right here at home!! They would still program the full stereo etc, but the SA machine would just not put out the full richness of the game, like a mono radio playing a stereo FM broadcast. Atari would also get royalty on each cartridge sold. What a bonanza!! OTOH, your scenario presupposes an Atari that is all wise and knows how to get things done in all phases of the business, all over the world. Just about. They can't even do it right in California, never could and never will. Meanwhile, Sanyo and Fabricas Argentinas will be selling stunted 3DO machines into that market, and Atari might as well kiss it goodbye. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 60 Fri Jan 07, 1994 REALM [Joey] at 04:01 EST Sandy, I thought the Stock Market was based on guess work?:-) I don't know what IBM is doing with Atari but it could be nothing more then just manufacturing the JAG. Atari has said though that the chipset would be used for other things. I'd just like to see an anouncement of that type. I'm not saying it's going to happen or anything.:-) Why didn't you guys warn me yesterday the Stock was going up! Now I may have to buy back right where I sold, I was hoping it would at least dip to 4. Can't make any money buying and selling at the same price.:-) ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 61 Fri Jan 07, 1994 C.UNDERWOOD1 [Carson] at 08:36 EST On Monday morning I purchased 375 shares at 5 5/8 (adding to the 200 I already owned). This is the second time I bought right before it took off. I purchased my first 200 shares at 5 1/8 right before the last advance to 12. I didn't sell because I had (& still do) 30 in my eyes. Here's hoping for Sandy's 8 today. Gene, First off, this is none of my business. But I'm sure I am not the only one who is curious about this. I "discovered" ATC because of you & have felt grateful about it ever since. In your past posts you said you would sell when ATC hit 30 or Feb. 1, 1994, whichever came first. I was wondering why you sold early. Were those profits burning a hole in your portfolio? :) Carson ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 62 Fri Jan 07, 1994 ICDINC at 09:11 EST 3DO has been rocketing skyward over the past two days (5 points). Atari has also been moving up. I have to think that Winter CES is causing this move. Sandy, you should really compare 3DO stock to Atari. The graphs are amazingly close. I thought at one time that 3DO was leading Atari and could be used to predict moves but lately they are running in parallel. - TOM - PS I have the history if you areinterested. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 63 Fri Jan 07, 1994 W.FAANES at 13:12 EST Ahhh... So the wires say today that Atari announced the national release of the Jaguar for the first HALF of 1994. Does that mean later rather than sooner? hmmmm Also Sam T. announced that the Jaguar retail price in the SECOND half of 1994 will be $200! It didn't say it was with or without a cartridge... The stock is up to 7 7/8 on the news.. hmmmm also 3DO has been going up at almost the same rate as ATC... The SANYO announcement seemed to be giving 3DO a boost... (A cheaper unit SANYO promises) ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 64 Fri Jan 07, 1994 ARCHIVIST [Charlie] at 15:36 EST Sandy, I understand what you're saying. There are advantages to doing it your way as well as disadvantages. Who knows? Maybe it will happen your way after all. The Tramiels have always been hard to predict. :-) Charlie/sysop ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 65 Fri Jan 07, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 15:53 EST Joey - - > Why didn't you guys warn me ... I was hoping it would at least dip > to 4. :-) Hey, I thought we did. ;-) Didn't you look at the chart published in GEnieLamp showing the asymptote at 5 3/8? After a slow approach, it touched 5 3/8 for a brief moment and then started its so far uninterrupted climb. This was all "predicted" right here. > Can't make any money buying and selling at the same price. Not necessarily true! If you sell at x on the way down, then buy back at x on the way up, you could very well have made a very clever and profitable sequence of moves. Come on, smile! BTW, I doubled my participation in Hi Plains. They announced a further increase to the production capacity of their new refinery. I think this will make them the lowest cost producer, with a capacity more than double what they have now, and the market due to increase vastly by government directive. The stock is still 50% below where it was last year. What better "fundamentals" could one ask for? --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 66 Fri Jan 07, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 15:54 EST Tom - - You are quite correct, as usual. 3DO and ATC have both been moving under the same influence in the recent past -- heavy short selling! I haven't checked out the total outstanding short position in 3DO, but I would suspect it is in about the same relative position vs outstanding float as is ATC. Both stocks have had a spark touched to their 'short' fuses within the past week or so; no wonder they are now moving up approximately in parallel. However, I believe that ATC is somewhat stronger technically. Fundamentally (?), Atari has at least decent prospects for a black bottom line in 1994; 3DO won't see black ink for at least another 3 years. One other interesting comparison. 3DO's upward 'bounce' has been accompanied by a barrage of superlative press releases at WCES. Atari has yet to issue a press release which has made the DJN/R news room, and the media has consequently pretty well ignored Atari. Yet ATC has moved up even more ( %-wise ) than 3DO. --Sandy PS: Say 'Hi' to Jeff for me. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 67 Fri Jan 07, 1994 M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 18:09 EST Sandy - Point well taken! Hey, I gave it a shot! Anyway, if Atari knew what they were doing, we might have missed out on our 'luck' last November! We can only hope they take some input from the new guy, and that he is as good as some folks say. Matt ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 68 Fri Jan 07, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 19:27 EST The following are the 2 available press releases re Atari/Jaguar. They are direct PR announcements from the companies, so I don't think copyright applies. If I am wrong, will Al Fasoldt kindly say so. ATARI JAGUAR POISED TO POUNCE NATIONALLY IN 1994; GAME SYSTEM AND SOFTWARE SELL OUT IN NEW YORK AND SAN FRANCISCO LAS VEGAS, Jan. 7 /PRNewswire/ -- Atari Corp. (AMEX: ATC) today announced that the company plans to roll out Jaguar(TM) -- the world's first 64-bit interactive multimedia home entertainment system -- in the first half of 1994. In addition, Jaguar and its first four software titles, "Cybermorph," "Raiden," "Evolution Dino-Dudes" and "Crescent Galaxy," will continue to ship steadily to stores in New York and San Francisco. "We look forward to extending Jaguar's success in the New York and San Francisco markets by implementing a nationwide rollout of the product in 1994," said Sam Tramiel, president of Atari. "What is especially rewarding is customer response to Jaguar -- it's great to see how people react to the system. We are committed to making Jaguar the world's number one game platform and this is a powerful start." "Sales of the Jaguar couldn't better. All of our units sold out in one day and we've got a list of more than 100 people waiting for our next shipment," said Gary Jockers, general manager, FAO Schwarz, San Francisco. "The new titles we received are selling out as fast as the systems. Our customers are clamoring to get these new games. Now that we've got all of the current game titles available for Jaguar, the demand is only increasing for more units." Atari Jaguar is the world's first 64-bit interactive multimedia home entertainment system and is the only video game system manufactured in the United States. Atari expect to deliver its Jaguar CD-peripheral in the second half of 1994 at a suggested retail price of $200. Atari Corp. manufactures and markets 64-bit interactive multimedia entertainment systems, video games and personal computers for the home, office and educational marketplaces. The Sunnyvale, Calif.-based company manufactures the Jaguar products in the United States. NOTE: Jaguar is a registered trademark of the Atari Corp. /CONTACT: Terry Valeski of Atari, 408-745-2000/ { Someone, earlier, was wondering about the $200 Jaguar price he heard was announced at CES. Note from above that $200 refers to the CD-peripheral, not the Jaguar. The problem lies in the false report written by a reporter -- copyrighted yet ha! The following is the false statement which went out over the wires: "Atari expects to deliver Jaguar in the second half of 1994 at a suggested retail price of $200." } CALGARY, Alberta--(BUSINESS WIRE)--QSound Labs Inc. (NASDAQ:QSNDF; TSE:QSL) Tuesday announced a royalty-based licensing agreement with Atari for the porting of QSound's patented Virtual Audio algorithm directly to Jaguar, the only 64-bit interactive multimedia entertainment system on the market today. This agreement will provide consumers, early in 1994, with the world's first implementation of QSound's revolutionary sound placement technology in an interactive home video game platform. Atari's Jaguar supports both cartridge and CD-ROM games. ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS OF QSOUND LABS, INC. David Gallagher President CONTACT: QSound Labs Inc., Calgary Christine Anderson, 403/291-2492 ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 69 Fri Jan 07, 1994 A.STUDER1 [Andy] at 22:09 EST QSound Labs Incorporated has signed a royalty-based licensing agreement with Atari Corporation to port QSound's Virtual Audio algorithm to Atari's 64-bit Jaguar entertainment system. The combined technology will be available in early 1994. IBM has signed a similar agreement with QSound to use Virtual Audio with their MWAV system. Virtual Audio allows software developers to generate soundscapes that exceed the physical sounds of stereo speaker geometry, providing an audio experience of previously unheard depth, clarity, and realism. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 70 Sat Jan 08, 1994 I.POSSEHL1 at 01:17 EST So Sandy, is 7 7/8 close enough to 8? Might I call this a "Lub", or should we wait for another? My quess is that Monday will tell much. -> Iver ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 71 Sat Jan 08, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 02:57 EST Matt - - > Options? We don' need no stinkin options!!! Where did you learn to speak Bandito? Without even an accent; very impressive! --Sandy BTW, during my bottom fishing expedition last week, I managed to pick up some May 7 1/2 Calls @ 1. Can sell now for a modest profit after all expenses. Imagine if it actually gets to 30 by May? My cousin bought a bunch of Jan 7 1/2 Calls at 1/8. Already up to 1/2, with another 2 weeks to go. Wow! She doesn't know ANYTHING about ATC, but got all excited when I told her about my modest success with the stock, and she 'plunged' in. I haven't got such instincts, sigh. Can you believe it? At least 3 guys were doing the 'If only... ' bit tonight on the RTC. "Coulda bought below 1; I could kick myself" said one. Another imagined buying 20,000 shares at 50 cents. Won't they ever learn? Most probably, these guys will NEVER buy into ATC, and when it gets to '30', will they howl about what they 'coulda' done. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 72 Sat Jan 08, 1994 J.BRENNER1 [See Flat] at 03:15 EST Carson, > Gene.......I was wondering why you sold early. Maybe Gene found out there would be no video phone on the Falcon? Just a joke Gene..... ;-) John B. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 73 Sat Jan 08, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 05:27 EST -> Iver - - Well, I was expecting 8 on Friday, but I suppose 7 7/8 is close enough to encourage me to work over the weekend on tuning up and presenting the particular analysis I have in mind. I haven't looked at it for about a week, and this past week's action may have an important effect. It's not yet a serious analysis; but it may be interesting, and we can all enjoy laughing at it. But I must admit, it did say '8 next Friday' to me when I did it a week ago. Funny how this monitor can talk. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 74 Sat Jan 08, 1994 C.UNDERWOOD1 [Carson] at 10:03 EST John B., Oh yeah, Gene's Videophone ghost. That prediction will haunt him for a long time to come. Of course, this means they will come out with one & he'll have the last laugh...again. :) Carson ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 75 Sat Jan 08, 1994 DARLAH [RT~SYSOP] at 15:05 EST Do you have permission to reprint that piece off the newswire? ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 76 Sat Jan 08, 1994 ORA.TECH [OregonResrch] at 16:48 EST Gene, I thought the 3DO had an O.S. Some people had said that from a developer's standpoint, this is one of Atari's advantages over 3DO. Just wondering. Robb ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 77 Sat Jan 08, 1994 M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 20:16 EST Gee Sandy - 'I coulda been a contender' I hadn't noticed you were there at the RTC last night. Nice work on the 'bottom fishing'. I think the only thing that has me looking forward to the week-ends being over, is .... what will ATC do Monday?!!. See ya, (I can't believe I have to go to work today!) Matt ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 78 Sat Jan 08, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 23:43 EST Did y'all hear of all the awards Atari garnered at CES? Things like 'Product of the Year' from Game Fan Magazine, and several others, including software awards. However! Time Magazine gave its 'Product of the Year' to ...? Yup, 3DO. No wonder Time-Warner stock fell 10% last week. Serves them right, ... except I have some. Thinkin of selling out, I am. There was an interesting article in the SF Chronicle today. More or less supports what Bob Brodie told us about the display put on by Trip Hawkins at CES. Full of super-superlatives about 3DO, "not a new company, but a new industry; that giant sucking sound you hear is all that Hollywood talent being sucked up to Silicon Valley to design products (for 3DO)." He "refused to say how many of the 3DO interactive multimedia game consoles manufactured by Panasonic were sold last year (many analysts say the sales fell well below expectations.) He went on to dismiss all others: "Atari is undercapitalized {I thought it was 3DO that needs to issue new stock to cover current operating costs.} and lacks the computer processing power" to make a success of the Jaguar, whereas his device has "multiple computer processors", etc etc. If I were biased, I'd say TH made a fool of himself. Since I'm so objective about these things, I'd say TH made a fool of himself. The usual suspect analyst, Lee Isgur, was quoted as rating "Jaguar's chances of success at 35 percent compared to 33 percent for 3DO, 30 percent for Sony and Sega and just 15 percent for Nintendo." Such brilliant "fundamental analysis" I can do without, quite frankly. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 79 Sun Jan 09, 1994 M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 01:56 EST Sandy - Re: your post # 78... You sir, are a laugh riot! Keep it up! Matt ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 80 Sun Jan 09, 1994 M.LIPSON [MikeL] at 02:01 EST I believe (famous last words) that ATC is on some sort of upswing, solely on my own amateurish analysis of the unfolding factual situation. Now, if the fundamentals and T.A. coincide, which they reportedly do, the upswing could IMVHO be to 10 or more. I know that 12, 15 and 30 have been bandied about. I feel more comfortable with a modest projection to 10 for the time being. This all could be nonsense if Monday's trading does not prove out, but, just judging by the volume of Thursday and Friday, it seems that a breakout has taken place-- the only question is how far it will go before the next pullback-- and when that pullback will happen. I wouldn't be surprised if ATC hits 9 or more by Friday. Sandy and Matt-- Time for more beers? ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 81 Sun Jan 09, 1994 ARCHIVIST [Charlie] at 02:47 EST Sandy, 'Hollywood talent'? Isn't that an oxymoron? Let's hope for the best for Trip and pray he puts the guy who did 'The Beverly Hillbillies, The Movie' in charge of all 3DO entertainment products. :-) Hmm. 35% + 33 + 30 + 15 equals the kind of accounting practices that make you need to issue more stock to buy office supplies. Do you know if there's any relation? Charlie/sysop ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 82 Sun Jan 09, 1994 STEVE-J [DrHfuhruhurr] at 05:50 EST Commodore FIRED Nolan Bushnell (yep, MR. ATARI himself!) for doing with the CDTV what Trip Hawkins is doing with 3DO -- hyping a product so much that it can't POSSIBLY live up to expectations. Of course we Jaguar owners have D.ENGEL doing that for the Jaguar in the Video Games BB! ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 83 Sun Jan 09, 1994 ORA.TECH [OregonResrch] at 17:51 EST Oops, Nevermind that post, I just ran an old copy of Aladdin, and that reply was sitting around. Sorry Robb ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 84 Sun Jan 09, 1994 M.LIPSON [MikeL] at 22:55 EST Sandy-- Any predictions about tomorrow's ATC trading? (that is, before the trading day ends ;- ) Mike ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 85 Sun Jan 09, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 23:03 EST Mike - - Your target of 9 does find support in a certain use of moving averages to measure a trend change and a subsequent target. I'm planning to redo my analysis as soon as I sign off, and may be able to say something later. But no promises. I will say that there is still a small chance that last week's bounce was just that, a bounce and not a change in trend. The next few weeks should be interesting. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 86 Mon Jan 10, 1994 G.ZEPKA1 [Greg] at 00:04 EST Sandy, Thanks for the information. I do not belive any company the size and structure of Atari can be under financed if they have a product that is selling, and a way to produce it. Unless of course there is a fraudulant past. As such Atari could raise all the funds they need if the machine sells. Greg ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 87 Mon Jan 10, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 03:02 EST Greg - - Unfortunately, it does not always work out that way. It takes money to make things happen, and building up to higher levels of acivityu often needs higher levels of financing. Atari has bled itself nearly dry. They have sold off just about everyting D D D C C C and are left with essentially a modest pool of cash from which to finance their renewal. They have a tight budget, and are clearly trying to conserve this key asset. Whether or not it will suffice, I can't tell. They have spoken of selling more stock. This would be very understandable. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 88 Mon Jan 10, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 03:03 EST Mike - - Well, I try. Unfortunately, a definitive analysis does not always jump up. In classical T/A terms, one must wait for a recognizable pattern to develop. Last week gave us a nice lift off, but not enough has happened so far to form a trading pattern which I can read in classical terms. There are cyclical and moving average techniques one can try. Someone over on the Investors' RT has put forward a 55 day MA as an appropriate measuring tool for the moment. By applying this MA, I get a projection of 9 and a fraction, not immediately, but possibly within a couple of weeks. So your projection of 9 at least has this support. However, while I think I understand why he chooses a 55 day MA, I see it only as a stop gap type of aid, to use in the absence of something better. I have asked him to amplify and explain, but no reply so far. The cycle analysis I have been watching failed to confirm a particular medium term cycle I had expected to turn up during the first part of December. If last week marks a turn up of a slightly longer cycle, in the range of 4 - 5 months, then we indeed have something good to look forward to. Otoh, it might be the turn up of a short term cycle, such as occurred in late November with a one week rise from 7 -> 9 3/4; however I think the longer term upturn is more likely this time. There is yet another method I am looking at. This seems to give a long term target in the 25 - 30 region, but this is something I'm still playing with. And then there are "fundamental" considerations. The only one I care to speculate about is the exiting of the short sellers. I think this is now going on, so I would not be surprised to see more of a rise ahead. Unfortunately, this can give way to more short selling if the rise peters out, so it may not be all blue skies ahead. Others can speculate on the other fundamentals. Yes, it is still a frustrating picture. What I can say, is that it is unlikely to continue moving up 40% per week. That is no great insight; but the ensuing fluctuations will hopefully establish a trading pattern which can be used for the next projection. If someone can see ahead more clearly, then let's hear it! --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 89 Mon Jan 10, 1994 J.YEGERLEHNE at 18:16 EST Is there any way to find out what the total number of ATC shares that have been sold short, other than the once-a-month list in Barron's? With the volume we've seen over the last few days, those four million shorts could already have been covered. Jim Y. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 90 Mon Jan 10, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 20:59 EST For what its worth: One of the leading newsletters, "Market Logic", lists Atari as the "strongest" issue for call options at this time. In a statement reported in the Amsterdam News describing the intention of 3DO to launch in Europe and Japan in March, Trip Hawkins is quoted as saying that the only rivals for the 3DO machine are the future Nintendo and Sega computer games. To an announcement by Phillips that the 3D-I met its U.S. 1993 sales goal of 300,000 units, 3DO responded that its sales outpaced the 3D-I but refused to provide figures. The market valuation of Atari rose 1/2% today; that of 3DO fell 1/2%. This despite the kudos given 3DO by TIME. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 91 Mon Jan 10, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 20:59 EST Jim Y - - Perhaps your broker can find out the daily short position in a given stock. If they can, please let us know. Frankly, I doubt that this information is easy to come by as it must be reported by each broker engaging in such activity. But try. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 92 Mon Jan 10, 1994 K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 22:02 EST What governs the price of stock? I'm sure it's pretty complicated but I'm smart. :) The reason I ask is because, although I expected a rise somewhere near CES time, I didn't read any news that would cause me to warrant it (other than 3DO's announced sell of only about 10,000 units and that wasn't _that_ big). Then someone here mentioned short selling and I understand that but, after so much is sold, I would expect it to sink back down slowly. I enjoy finally seeing some green in my portfolio but I was wondering what caused it. If the stock goes over 8.5, then I _at least_ expect 10-11. Depending on how software development and shipment goes, I'd say even higher than that, around 14-15. That, for me though, would be the critical point. Would there be some selling off or would it continue to climb. If it's anywhere over 10 come SCES (late in June), I see that as being the low price for the remainder of the year. Why? Guesses and huntches altough I've been missing the boat recently. Still Sailing, Sir Fransis Oh, and they've _got_ to get the software and CD-ROM unit out _ON TIME_. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 93 Mon Jan 10, 1994 ICDINC at 23:30 EST Sir, Supply and demand. Confidence makes the supply get smaller = higher prices. Lack of it causes shorts and lower prices. Are the Tramiels doing a good job? - TOM - ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 94 Tue Jan 11, 1994 K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 00:22 EST ICDINC, So it's not so much news as it is confidence in the company. O.K., think I've got a handle on the future now. About how many shares of Atari are out, anyway? I remember reading somewhere that they had about 48 million shares, but it didn't say how many were available for purchase. I'd figure that, since Atari is considering making more stock available, there'd have to be somewhere near 1 million free shares. If Atari _does_ offer more shares, would it be a stock split thing or a "diluting the shareholders" thing? Which one is more apt to happen and does that mean sell before the transaction or hold? Still Sailing, Sir Fransis ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 95 Tue Jan 11, 1994 ICDINC at 09:01 EST The Tramiels need to keep control of Atari with at least 51% so you can believe that 51% of the shares are not for sale. If they offer more shares, they will have to buy or have a partner buy 51% of those shares as well. A split doesn't have anything to do with offering more shares. That just lowers the price. In offering more shares, they dilute the value of current shares. The majority must vote that it is in the best interest of the stockholders. - TOM - ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 96 Tue Jan 11, 1994 I.POSSEHL1 at 21:57 EST Let's play just suppose. Just suppose #1: That the current upswing in ATC is similar to the ones that started late June and mid October. Extending the July and November patterns would suggest another spike in the 14 - 18 range sometime around the end of the month. Just Suppose #2: After finding resistence at about 12 in November, ATC saw a fairly consistent decline until now. Look for slow gains until that upper line is challenged a couple times, then (for some unknown reason) it breaks out to a new high in the 18 - 24 range? Just Suppose #3: Something drastic happens and the bottom drops out. Do any of these three seem reasonable to you? Why? Do you have another Just Suppose? -> Iver ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 97 Tue Jan 11, 1994 J.COOPER6 [Jim W2JC] at 22:45 EST In Message 95 on Tue Jan 11, 1994 ICDINC said: -| The Tramiels need to keep control of Atari with at least 51% so you can -| believe that 51% of the shares are not for sale. -| The majority must vote that it is in the best interest of the Isn't that a bit of a laugh? If Tramiels have 51% of stock, why vote? ============== In Message 90 on Mon Jan 10, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] said: -| One of the leading newsletters, "Market Logic", lists Atari as the -| "strongest" issue for call options at this time. Well, I hope so! Having over 800 shares of the stock, I remembered that ATC has options also, and decided to check them on Monday. The FEB 10 Calls were going for about 3/8, which is like in my affordable range! By the time I went back and checked the chart again, and came back to place the order they were up to 7/16... I've got 600 calls and 850 shares, so you can be sure we will soon get a retracement back to 5 !!! As for the 55day moving average, I believe I answered that earlier, but the post might have only gone out this morning (1/11)... basically, just a sequence of numbers to show longer and longer time spans; I use 11, 22, 33, 55, 111 (easier to type than 110!), 222 for various charts. When some of these cross each other, it indicates a shift of trend, etc. A very popular futures analyst (Mo Ansari) says he has found the 49day moving average to often be significant... Jim W2JC in Northern NJ --... ...-- -.. . .-- ..--- .--- -.-. -.- ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 98 Tue Jan 11, 1994 ICDINC at 22:53 EST J.cooper, Glad you are starting to see the plight of the Falcon. :-( - TOM - ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 99 Tue Jan 11, 1994 C.UNDERWOOD1 [Carson] at 23:56 EST Well, I am really curious as to what happened today. Actually, why it happened would be more appropriate. ATC closed at 7 3/8 with 616,000 shares traded. The stat that got me was its low was 6 7/8 & its high was 8 1/8!?! Anybody care to comment as to why the big spread between the high & the low? I checked DJ News Retrieval's //WIRES for today & only found a P-Alert. Carson ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 100 Wed Jan 12, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 02:32 EST Iver - - What you are talking about in comparing the activity during the different time periods, is fractal geometry. Interestingly, this is just what I have been looking at, and which gave me the target of 8 for last Friday or this Monday. I am now trying to figure out the future targets. Yours are possible outcomes of such a fractal approach. There are others. One of yours comes up to 25; this may be where I am seeing 25 - 30. But as I said, this is more amusement than serious analysis at this time. Steve - - Your projections are also interesting. It would be helpful if you could explain more how you arrive at your numbers. Today's activity has that familiar look of an outside trend changing day. In this instance, the trend would be changed from its recent stong uptrend, back to the downside. Looks like short selling came back in once the upward momentum was seen to slow down yesterday afternoon and today. There are a few saving points. 1) The volume for the day was less than yesterday's. 2) The low point of 6 7/8 is just above the 50% retracement -- 6 3/4 -- from 5 3/8 to 8 1/8. This is a pattern we saw often with ATC's rise, and is consistent with a continuation of the uptrend. 3) I can't remember the 3rd one I had in mind when starting this list. It seemed to be interesting at the time. All of these positive signs can be swept away in 30 minutes of short selling. Some interesting days ahead. --Sandy PS: Good to see you here, Jim. That's an interesting sequence of MA's. An important application for MA's is as a filter for isolating time cycles. I'll try these out and see if something interesting develops. I thought I figured out your choice of 55 days, but I was wrong in this as your sequence seems rather arbitrary -- although mathematically interesting -- to me at this time. I'm also sitting here with a pocket full of shares and options. I think we will have occasion to either cry together or clink glasses together. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 101 Wed Jan 12, 1994 E.EPPERSON [Ed] at 03:33 EST Carson: This doesn't answer your question, but there have been other recent days when the spread was larger and the volume was smaller -- 12/17/93 for example. The next week after that held pretty flat near the upper range of the 12/17 spread. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 102 Wed Jan 12, 1994 R.WATSON15 [Wayne Watson] at 06:35 EST With all these friggin short sellers, will ATC ever get up to a decent level? They are starting to piss me off. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 103 Wed Jan 12, 1994 C.UNDERWOOD1 [Carson] at 09:09 EST OK, time for me to put on my badge of ignorance. Exactly what is short selling & why does it affect ATC (brings the price down). It almost sounds like short sellers target a stock, "short sell it", do what they can (media & rumour wise) to talk negatively about their target so it will go down, & swoop in to take profits. Carson ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 104 Wed Jan 12, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 14:50 EST Interesting development so far today. At 11:30 (Wall Street time), ATC was down to 7, testing yesterday's low, on a total volume of 100,000 shares. At 12:45, it was back up to 7 5/8 on a total vol of 200,000 shares; ie 100,000 shares in 45 minutes. Looks like a possible consolidation/continuation pattern may be developing. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 105 Wed Jan 12, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 18:42 EST Carson - - Re those short selling cads, you've got it about right. However, I would add that they are important to maintaining a reasonably efficient auction market, so don't think only bad thoughts about them -- unless, of course, you are long the stock. Someday, you may find it useful to do some short selling yourself; then you can do some bad-mouthing too. BTW, a reasonable alternative for participating in a downtrend is via the option market. Buy 'puts'; or sell 'calls' if you have the stock. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 106 Thu Jan 13, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 03:45 EST Nothing dire happened on Wed. Could be consolidating for a further move up to the 9 - 10 region. Hope so. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 107 Thu Jan 13, 1994 K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 11:38 EST We opened lower than we closed yesterday, I guess that little rise was a hiccup. I didn't think it had any basis for being there, but there it was nonetheless. Perhaps soon there will be some solid _news_ that will inspire confidence (and a rash of buying) such as: a) Naming the ten markets they will be expanding to. b) Shipping a vast volume of product to those markets. c) Actual sotware releases in Feb. (_most_ imperative). and d) Confirmation of the last few names added to the dev. list (Spectrum Holobyte, LucasArts, Origin, etc.) any one of these will raise the "bottom" to somewhere around 6.5 - 7. Any more than one will raise the value maybe to 9. Just waitin' now. Still Sailing, Sir Fransis I don't think we're headed back to 5, though. I think Atari is showing too strong for that. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 108 Thu Jan 13, 1994 T.LIPSKY at 22:45 EST today i had ATC up on my "board" when it was sitting around with a bid of 7 1/4 Ask 7 3/8, all of a sudden it traded at 7 7/8 creating a new daily high, then it traded right back were it was, perhaps an ignorant short seller sold his/her stock above the market??? who knows tim.... ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 109 Thu Jan 13, 1994 E.EPPERSON [Ed] at 23:48 EST ATC -- more consolidation/ ?? Meanwhile, how about those HIGHer PLAINS? ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 110 Thu Jan 13, 1994 J.HICKEY6 at 23:56 EST Looks like I was half right and half wrong. I said "Options do provide stability, except near expiration. I would expect Atari to close near 5, 7- 1/2 or 10 at the January options expiration.(my guess is 5)" Friday will tell. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 111 Fri Jan 14, 1994 M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 00:11 EST Tim - (Lipsky) Gee, it must be nice to be able to 'call up' ATC and be able to monitor for a good period of time. When _I_ 'call up' ATC, it's a land line call to my brokers' phone-quote service! ;-) Matt ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 112 Fri Jan 14, 1994 NOCTURNAL at 01:03 EST Just wondering, how low would the stock drop if they decided to add more shares? I would guess it depends on how much more stock is issued, but I never delt with stock when that was a factor. Thanks... ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 113 Fri Jan 14, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 01:13 EST Tim L - - That 7 7/8 must have been an error on the tape. Today was an 'inside' at much reduced volume. Still on schedule for the new uptrend. I hope. EE - - You in Hi(gher) Plaines too? How about that gap today? --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 114 Fri Jan 14, 1994 E.EPPERSON [Ed] at 03:03 EST Sandy: Ah yes, the GAP! First one in over 3 months. I don't know about before 10/7/93 without doing some looking. Ed ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 115 Fri Jan 14, 1994 STEVE-J [DrHfuhruhurr] at 06:19 EST K.DRAKE - Concerning C & D, I don't think any more Jaguar games will be coming out until at least March/April and I have doubts about the other developers -- especially the Spectrum Holobyte one which seems to have simply been inferred by their merger w/ Microprose (i.e. Microprose is a developer, therefore Spectrum Holobyte is!). ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 116 Sat Jan 15, 1994 J.COOPER6 [Jim W2JC] at 11:20 EST In Message 108 on Thu Jan 13, 1994 T.LIPSKY said: -| then it traded right back were it was, perhaps an ignorant short seller -| sold his/her stock above the market??? who knows tim.... There are always fools who will put in a "sell at market" instead of specifying at least the current "ask" price... ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 117 Tue Jan 18, 1994 K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 17:12 EST Will Atari hold steadfast at 7? Time will tell. Still Sailing, Sir Fransis ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 118 Tue Jan 18, 1994 T.LIPSKY at 21:04 EST There seems to be a direct corelation between the # of shares traded and the number of posts to this topic...hmmm Tim ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 119 Wed Jan 19, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 03:33 EST A monthly newsletter, Rational Investment Outlook, recommended shorting ATC in its recent issue. It trotted out all the standard reasons why ATC has to go down further: "Even if its sales projection materialize, the potential profits do not justify the price"; "it remains over valued"; "initially projected sales of 50,000 Jaguar units... were revised to 20,000 units.."; "revenue has been declining continuously since 1987...". None of this is very new and, imho, cannot form the basis of analysis for a 'market phenom', which is what I believe ATC has become and still is. So what if "it remains overvalued by 30%"? Many analysts have been crying this about nearly every stock for the past 2 years. Means nothing for a stock like ATC at this time. He does note that there are already so many shorts that a "temporary lift" may still come. The way I see it at the moment is that the consolidation pattern seems to be proceding on schedule. The range for this pattern was established on Jan. 11 when it rose to 8 1/8 and then retreated to 6 7/8 (closed at 7 3/8). How long it will stay in this range I can't tell; could be days or another week, maybe longer. (Fractals is telling me longer, but then...) The odds favor a breakout to the upside, with a possible target looking like about 10. However, as usual, anything can happen where Atari is concerned. Before my projection of 30 gets too far abroad -- I've seen it cited elsewhere -- let me repeat that it is the _wild_ result of trying to work with fractal geometry. I am trying to put together some charts to demonstrate what I am seeing in the fractals. If it works out, it should be possible to place them in the library. However, this is still just a matter of having some fun, although it does impress with some unexpected relevancy. Someone else here seems to be seeing approximately the same thing, although he hasn't referred to it as fractal geometry. BTW, fractals are saying - to me - that the consolidation referred to above might last another few weeks or longer; makes for an interesting test. --Sandy PS: Good point, Tim. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 120 Wed Jan 19, 1994 PG.MUSIC [PG-Kevin] at 09:12 EST Sandy, "The fractals are saying ... " Sounds like "The Crystal Ball says ... " --Kevin ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 121 Wed Jan 19, 1994 M.LYDA [mike] at 18:04 EST Sandy; I wonder what the _Rational_Investment_Outlook_ would say about how 3DO is overvalued? Also wonder if they are shorting 3DO as well, or have invested heavily in it. Either way, if the shorting tries to take ATC down again (for the count?) then when Atari begins advertising nationally (in the end of Jan?) it could be wild. A lull in the messages here does spell something... I'm not going to touch it. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 122 Wed Jan 19, 1994 ICDINC [Tom] at 18:08 EST I don't think you will see Atari advertising nationally for a few more months. It seems that Jaguars are still in short supply. (No pun intended.) - TOM - ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 123 Wed Jan 19, 1994 M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 22:05 EST Nice post, Sandy. Thanks for the review, and the insight! Matt ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 124 Thu Jan 20, 1994 J.COOPER6 [Jim W2JC] at 00:09 EST Sandy & all... 940119: The ATC chart looks very ominous today! Ominous enough that I dumped 400 shares at a 30c/share loss just to be off with it before it dives... (which should assure the rest of you folks of a profit very soon!). Price has been up tight against the 49day moving average line for about a week and unable to break above it; almost everything I can see on the chart complex I use looks like the whale is about to dive for some bottom fishing! If I'm wrong, I've lost the leverage of the 400 shares but it will still help my $10 shares and the calls... if I'm right, I'll lose on them but not on the other 400. What do you read in the chart today? Jim W2JC in Northern NJ --... ...-- -.. . .-- ..--- .--- -.-. -.- ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 125 Thu Jan 20, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 02:30 EST PG-Kevin - - Crystals are examples of fractals, I think. My crystal ball, the one I was using last summer/fall, was shattered when Sam T. bandied talk about his personal horde of ATC stock with a reporter at the NYC "rollout". I knew then that Atari management was congenitally condemned to failure. Now I have the crystalline shards; these are my fractals. ;-) ICDINC Tom - - No advertising for months to come? Less production than planned, or higher than expected sales? Here I was planning on using my 'new' Mega STe to track ATC minute by minute; now maybe I don't need it. Anyway, I don't yet have it (?). --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 126 Thu Jan 20, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 02:31 EST Mike - - I don't get that newsletter, but its advice to short ATC was considered significant enough to be cited in a digest I get which has excerpts from many newsletters. It also quoted advice to sell IBM. That makes 2 of mine. I did sell some IBM today when it broke below a trading range I had established - still made a modest gain. Sometimes, anything at all said about a company - even bad mouthing - is a positive. ATC is not one of your important companies, and is normally totally ignored. Getting all this attention, good or bad, has got to be a good at this time. Nothing said so far actually gets to the most important factors as I see them: the IBM contract, and the potential (which may never be activated) which lies within the Time Warner connection and tie in to a whole new industry. The basic negative, as I see it, and again seldom mentioned, is ... well, perhaps this would be a good time to zip my lip. Anyway, we've got to talk about something during these lulls. Just so we don't freeze our finger tips. Only -20F tonight around here. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 127 Thu Jan 20, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 02:32 EST Jim W2JC - - You've managed to put the fear of Tramiel into me! I'll be calling in for quotes every 15 minutes tomorrow. What I don't understand is where you get all these different ma's from and why. Last time I heard, your 55 day ma had turned you positive on ATC. Now I read where your 49 day ma has turned you terrified. (BTW, I note that 49 days is not in your original list whatever that may imply.) I haven't had the opportunity yet to check out your new 49 day ma; will do so as soon as possible in the morning. I was watching ATC most of the day exploring the bottom of the trading range, which I had placed at 6 7/8. Then, in the late afternoon, it lifted off and rose to 7 3/8 before closing at 7 1/8. I wasn't able to follow the volume as it made these moves, so I don't know where most of the interest came in, on the way down or on the way up. I'll assume it was evenly divided. Yup, it could be bad. But I'll stick, for at least another 15 minutes, with my feeling that the next important move will be towards the upper part of the trading range, which I have placed at 8 1/8. The short sellers have still not panicked, so they may well be ready for another round of havoc. Anything can happen, I certainly am not very confident of an upward move. Have to be ready to jettison some lollipops at a moments notice. The news -- see above from ICDINC -- that national advertising is being held back because of production shortages (?) may indicate some serious problems a brewin. Could IBM be upset with the Tramiels over something? Wouldn't surprise me one iota. The record of the test run, less than 1/2 what was projected, may be a source of friction. Yup, there are many negative thoughts possible in the "fundamental" arena, but then there are many positive thoughts to be found there as well. BTW, computer type stocks, in general, took a good bath yesterday; in that light, ATC may have held up fairly well. Got to go to bed early tonight, so I can be ready at the button 9:30 in the morning. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 128 Thu Jan 20, 1994 ICDINC [Tom] at 05:47 EST Sandy and All, Please be aware that my "news" is just an educated guess based on years of experience rather than any press release or inside information. Based on serial numbers posted here on GEnie it looks as if production is behind even the revised official report. Unless something changes quickly, there is no reason to have a national rollout in the near future. Atari needs to be able to ship a minimum of 20K per month to promote nationally in my opinion. And they appear to be a long way from that. Atari has not released any information that confirms nor denies this. - TOM - ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 129 Thu Jan 20, 1994 S.WINICK at 06:29 EST Tom, >> Please be aware that my "news" is just an educated guess based >> on years of experience rather than any press release or inside >> information. Do the terms "Business as Usual" and "RSN" come to mind? Sheldon (Computer STudio - Asheville, NC) ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 130 Thu Jan 20, 1994 ICDINC [Tom] at 11:14 EST Yep. :-( - TOM - ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 131 Thu Jan 20, 1994 ARCHIVIST [Charlie] at 13:25 EST Tom, I wouldn't place a whole lot of value on the serial numbers reported here. As I recall, when the same thing was done with the Falcon the numbers didn't go higher than 500 (to STRs delight) and then Atari UK reported a figure of ... 12,000 was it? Anyway, th inportant point to remember is that in spite of Clinton and Gore's 'information superhighway' the use of BBS's is still an abnormal occupation of an extream minority, hardly even enough to make a valid statistical database. OTOH, who knows? I've said for a long time the only thing you can do with Atari is wait and see. I've given up trying to predict what they'll do, but I find it amusing to listen to what other people predict. Time tells who's right and who's wrong. Charlie/sysop ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 132 Thu Jan 20, 1994 ICDINC [Tom] at 15:47 EST My local Babbages called today and had received 12 Jaguars. It does sound like there are more going into the pipeline. MAybe I should go down there and check the serial numbers. :-) Charlie, Considering this it well beyond the end of 1993, I consider 10,000 a fairly good guess for 1993 shipments. Maybe the GEnie monitors from Atari will come on here and correct me. I would be very happy to hear a higher number. Yes, GEnie users are a small select group but for the rough guesses we are doing here, I believe that the statistics found here do tell much. You find it amusing? At least you are still smiling. :) The difference between the Falcon census and the Jaguar counting is that the Jaguar distribution is being concentrated on the USA. Not so with Atari computer products in the past. - TOM - ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 133 Thu Jan 20, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 20:45 EST So, Jim W2JC, what happened today? Neither your disaster, nor my blue skies. Haven't looked at the chart yet, but I think a big nothing happened today. Unfortunately, for my projection, if it doesn't show some strength on Friday, or Monday at the latest, then I might have to switch over to your outlook. There is a time for all things, and now is the time for ATC to rise to at least 7 3/4 - 8. After that, the time will be right for weakness. However, today's non-activity is right in accord with my fractals! Could go on for weeks. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 134 Thu Jan 20, 1994 J.COOPER6 [Jim W2JC] at 21:03 EST In Message 127 on Thu Jan 20, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] said: -| What I don't understand is where you get all these different ma's -| from and why. Last time I heard, your 55 day ma had turned you -| positive on ATC. Now I read where your 49 day ma has turned you -| terrified. (BTW, I note that 49 days is not in your original list Thought I explained that before! A set of moving averages gives a sense of short vs. longer term trending. Very often, price will tend to stop at one of the ma's as either support or resistance... if everyone watches something, and bases their decisions on it, then it's good to watch the same things! (Also thought I had mentioned that well known futures trader uses the 49day ma, so Ihave added it to my long-term chart). -| I was watching ATC most of the day exploring the bottom of the -| trading range, which I had placed at 6 7/8. Then, in the late -| afternoon, it lifted off and rose to 7 3/8 before closing at 7 1/8. Yep, guess where I got out (6 7/8)... the bid/ask spread was ridiculous, at one point was almost 1/2... so prices seen during the day jumped back and forth between the bid and ask... I couldn't get them off at anything over 7, so had to jump at the bid price of 6 7/8. ============ In Message 121 on Wed Jan 19, 1994 M.LYDA [mike] said: -| Also wonder if they are shorting 3DO as well, or have invested heavily -| in it. Either way, if the shorting tries to take ATC down again (for Dont be surprised if THDO makes an upward break before long, fundamentals or not... the chart shows it has been stuck right along one of the moving averages (33 day, as I recall) and it looks like it's sort of building up pressure... ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 135 Thu Jan 20, 1994 ICDINC [Tom] at 21:09 EST I think most of the technical stocks were depressed today. Atmel was a big loser. All this week while the stock market has been exploring new highs the technical stocks have been wallowing or dropping. Since Atari held its own, I would say that it has positive potential Friday or next week when the technicals bounce back. I closed out my short position on THDO because even though I don't believe in the company, there was too much Bull pressure. So I am waiting for a good rise so I can short it again. - TOM - ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 136 Thu Jan 20, 1994 M.LIPSON [MikeL] at 23:31 EST Some non-TA/non-fractal conjecture: ATC slowly slides to 6 and hovers around there until release of some truly awesome games by the end of February - beginning of ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 137 Thu Jan 20, 1994 J.COOPER6 [Jim W2JC] at 23:33 EST In Message 133 on Thu Jan 20, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] said: -| So, Jim W2JC, what happened today? Neither your disaster, nor my -| blue skies. Haven't looked at the chart yet, but I think a big -| nothing happened today. Well, it's stuck between the 34d and 55d moving averages, which are closing in on it (55 down, 34 up)... the CCI is very low, boding for a possible very short term upward movement; the short term stochastic is quite oversold, also indicating a possible short term upward movement -- BUT EVERYTHING ELSE looks terrible at the moment... as soon as it breaks below the 34d average, I suspect it's going to plunge for a bit and then start over again.... (that's just MY amateur analysis!) ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 138 Fri Jan 21, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 00:23 EST Jim W2JC - - I looked at your 49 day ma and really don't see much difference between it and 55 days. I think you said the price was pressing up against it? As I read it, either of those ma's is serving as 'support'. The price has been staying just above them for 2 weeks. An alternative interpretation is that a triangular penant has formed with a base of 6 7/8, and a peak at 8 1/8. If so, the breakout has to come very soon, and would favor an upward move to close to 10. There are other nuances which favor a downward move, but they seem less well defined and less probable, to me, although not out of the question. This is just one of those periods requiring watchful waiting, and being prepared for anything. I suppose the quarterly report is due soon, which may yield a resolution. Probably show unexpectedly large losses. But that's what I always expected anyway. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 139 Fri Jan 21, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 01:47 EST Jim W2JC - - I don't recall your previously explaining the 49 and 34 day ma's. Now I think I see what you are doing, but it still looks a bit arbitrary to me. Looks like you run every ma you can there is, and see if some maybe look relevant. No, don't say it, I know that's not what you do. It is still interesting to note that your definition of "long" vs "short" term may be only a 6 day difference. That _is_ fine tuning. Your broker must be quite wealthy, like it says in the TV ad. Hope your stochastics is right. How long can 'oversold' continue, or get even more oversold? --Sandy BTW, IBM has a neat double top, pointing down to about 50. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 140 Fri Jan 21, 1994 ARCHIVIST [Charlie] at 02:10 EST Tom, well, I guess the only way to get a good idea what the quantity of Jaguars shipped actually was will be by reading the 4th quarter report from Atari; that's still a good while off, unfortunately. Your guess of 10,000 is what I would call a minimum as I seem to recall someone reporting a serial number of 89xx or something in cat 26. I don't place a lot of faith in the number, though, as it never was settled what the A, B or C meant in the serial numbers. I suggested it could indicate seperate production lines for QA reasons, and I still think that likely. Does that mean that at least 10,000 came off each production line? No one but Atari can know because only they know what the serial numbers mean. Still, thinking back on all those reports we have seen of 'My local (whatever store) got 12 Jaguars in today and I got one of them!' really make me wonder about the value of the information here. I don't think Gallop would dare make a prediction based on this info. :-) Charlie/sysop ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 141 Fri Jan 21, 1994 E.EPPERSON [Ed] at 03:36 EST In case you missed it, serial number K13C012138 was posted in Category 26. (posted by D.SWEETLAND) So now what's the total, huh? ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 142 Fri Jan 21, 1994 REALM [Joey] at 03:38 EST Here's what my experience with Atari tells me... you'll never guess what their doing.:-) Their stock is even less predictable. Thats probably what makes the platform so much fun. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 143 Fri Jan 21, 1994 STEVE-J [DrHfuhruhurr] at 06:33 EST ICDINC - Actually, I believe Bob Brodie quoted about "1,000 units per week" a few weeks ago, which is pretty sorry! REALM - If only Atari stock was as predictable as the company! ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 144 Fri Jan 21, 1994 J.COOPER6 [Jim W2JC] at 07:32 EST In Message 135 on Thu Jan 20, 1994 ICDINC [Tom] said: -| I closed out my short position on THDO because even though I don't -| believe in the company, there was too much Bull pressure. So I am -| waiting for a good rise so I can short it again. I say both moves are good ideas! ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 145 Fri Jan 21, 1994 C.UNDERWOOD1 [Carson] at 08:59 EST Here is a couple of things I found in other topics that should be of interest to us stockholders: "Just checked w/ my local Blockbuster Video here in San Mateo Ca. They have Jags for sale and rent. Games renting for $4 for 3 nights, machines for bout $15 for 3 nights, or a Jag and 3 games for 3 nights $20. They even had a great Jag/Blockbuster sign in the Sega section." "Did anyone see the latest issue of Camcorder--real good article on the Falcon as a Video Workstation, four or five pages with photos." Carson ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 146 Fri Jan 21, 1994 J.HICKEY6 at 09:42 EST Maybe Atari uses hexidecimal serial numbers. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 147 Fri Jan 21, 1994 ARCHIVIST [Charlie] at 13:40 EST Actually, the number of units shipped isn't important. As long as they KEEP shipping, that's all that's important. IMHO. Charlie/sysop ------------